Communicating scientific uncertainty
Communicating scientific uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1317504111
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发表时间：
2014-09-16
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Davis, Alex L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fischhoff, Baruch;Davis, Alex L.
所有的科学都有不确定性。除非这种不确定性得到有效的沟通，否则决策者可能会对它过于信任或过于信任，需要沟通的信息取决于人们面临的决策。他们（i）在寻找信号（例如，是否在飓风之前撤离），（ii）在固定选项中进行选择（例如，哪种医学治疗是最好的），或者（iii）学习创建选项（例如，如何监管纳米技术）？我们研究这三类决策的特点，评估，并传达与每个相关的不确定性。然后，我们提供了一个协议，总结了许多可能的不确定性来源的标准条款，旨在对科学家施加最小的负担，同时逐步教育那些决定取决于他们的工作。它的目标是更好的决策，更好的科学，更好地支持科学。
All science has uncertainty. Unless that uncertainty is communicated effectively, decision makers may put too much or too little faith in it. The information that needs to be communicated depends on the decisions that people face. Are they (i) looking for a signal (e.g., whether to evacuate before a hurricane), (ii) choosing among fixed options (e.g., which medical treatment is best), or (iii) learning to create options (e.g., how to regulate nanotechnology)? We examine these three classes of decisions in terms of how to characterize, assess, and convey the uncertainties relevant to each. We then offer a protocol for summarizing the many possible sources of uncertainty in standard terms, designed to impose a minimal burden on scientists, while gradually educating those whose decisions depend on their work. Its goals are better decisions, better science, and better support for science.