Comparative analysis of recent fertility trends in East Asia.
Comparative analysis of recent fertility trends in East Asia.
复制标题
东亚近期生育趋势的比较分析。
DOI：
10.1109/tmag.2002.803167
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发表时间：
1973
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Retherford Rd
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cho Lj;Retherford Rd
日本人口结构的转变在1960年基本完成。菲律宾的粗出生率（CBR）略有下降，这是由于长期以来晚婚趋势的延续。印尼的生育率仅在60多岁时略有下降，而且处于较低生育年龄的已婚夫妇比例仍然很高。婚姻生育率相对较低，因此如果CBR在70年代下降，婚姻结构的变化(例如。结婚推迟)可能是早期生育率下降的主要原因。泰国的生育率在60年代略有下降，并可能在70年代加速下降。这种加速可能归因于婚姻生育率的下降，因为这个国家已经像菲律宾一样以晚婚为特征。印度尼西亚生育趋势的更清晰图景；菲律宾和泰国预计将利用1970年人口普查的独生子女统计表实现这一目标。（FRE摘要）
Analysis of fertility trends in Japan; South Korea; West Malaysia; the Philippines and Taiwan using a decomposition technique by Kitagawa (1955) revealed that countries with significant fertility declines occurring over the 60s and with high potential for lowering birth rate through postponement of marriage (West Malaysian Malays and Indians) can attribute most of the decline in crude birth rate to changes in the marital structure. Decline in marital fertility was the main mechanism in the more economically advanced countries and groups where proportions married in the younger fertile ages were already comparatively low (Korea; West Malaysian Chinese; Taiwan). The demographic transition of Japan was essentially complete by 1960. The Philippines experienced a slight decline in crude birth rate (CBR) and this was attributed to continuation of a long-term trend toward later marriage. Indonesias fertility declined only ver slightly over the 60s and there is still a high proportion of married couples at younger reproductive ages. Marital fertility is relatively low so that if CBR declines during the 70s changes in marital structure (eg. marital postponement) would probably account for most of the early decline. Thailand had a slight fertility decline during the 60s and may accelerate during the 70s. This acceleration may be attributed to decline in marital fertility as the country is already characterized by late marriage like the Philippines. A much clearer picture of fertility trends in Indonesia; the Philippines and Thailand is expected to be achieved with own-children tabulations from the 1970 censuses. (Summary in FRE)