The role of electric vehicles in near-term mitigation pathways and achieving the UK's carbon budget
The role of electric vehicles in near-term mitigation pathways and achieving the UK's carbon budget
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.04.107
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发表时间：
2019-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Blythe, Phil
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hill, Graeme;Heidrich, Oliver;Blythe, Phil
道路运输部门的脱碳日益被视为实现《巴黎协定》规定的全球和国家目标的必要组成部分。最好的办法是从内燃机（ICE）汽车转向电动汽车（EV）。然而，向低碳交通模式的过渡不会是瞬间的，现在实施的任何政策或技术变革都需要数年时间才能产生预期效果。在本文中，我们将展示如何将电动汽车的道路排放因子和车辆生产中嵌入的CO2模型与车辆吸收/更换的统计数据相结合，以预测未来的交通排放。我们证明，与高效的ICE相比，电动汽车在2030年之前在二氧化碳减排方面几乎没有什么好处。然而，在2030年至2050年之间，在不同的电动汽车吸收和脱碳情景下预测的二氧化碳减排量开始与加速电动汽车吸收的二氧化碳减排量出现分歧。这项工作表明，仅仅关注道路排放不足以模拟交通运输对未来二氧化碳的影响。相反，更完整的生产计算必须与EV摄取模型相结合。使用这个扩展模型，我们的场景显示了如何通过政策变化和车队期望变化之间的因果关系的时滞来解释商业作为商业和加速电动汽车吸收场景之间缺乏差异。我们的工作表明，目前英国的政策不太可能在2030年之前实现交通运输二氧化碳的预期减排。如果将嵌入式二氧化碳作为交通排放部门的一部分，那么所有可能的英国电动汽车情景都将无法实现2050年的减排目标，除非这与英国电网的强烈脱碳（1990年水平的80%）相结合。这一结果强调，虽然电动汽车为交通运输部门的脱碳做出了重要贡献，但有必要考虑其他交通运输缓解战略，例如向公共交通的模式转变，汽车共享和需求管理，以实现短期和长期的缓解目标。
The decarbonisation of the road transport sector is increasingly seen as a necessary component to meet global and national targets as specified in the Paris Agreement. It may be achieved best by shifting from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars to Electric Vehicles (EVs). However, the transition to a low carbon mode of transport will not be instantaneous and any policy or technological change implemented now will take years to have the desired effect. Within this paper we show how on-road emission factors of EVs and models of embedded CO2 in the vehicle production may be combined with statistics for vehicle uptake/replacement to forecast future transport emissions. We demonstrate that EVs, when compared to an efficient ICE, provide few benefits in terms of CO2 mitigation until 2030. However, between 2030 and 2050, predicted CO2 savings under the different EV uptake and decarbonisation scenarios begin to diverge with larger CO2 savings seen for the accelerated EV uptake. This work shows that simply focusing on on-road emissions is insufficient to model the future CO2 impact of transport. Instead a more complete production calculation must be combined with an EV uptake model. Using this extended model, our scenarios show how the lack of difference between a Business as Usual and accelerated EV uptake scenario can be explained by the time-lag in cause and effect between policy changes and the desired change in the vehicle fleet. Our work reveals that current UK policy is unlikely to achieve the desired reduction in transport-based CO2 by 2030. If embedded CO2 is included as part of the transport emissions sector, then all possible UK EV scenarios will miss the reduction target for 2050 unless this is combined with intense decarbonisation (80% of 1990 levels) of the UK electricity grid. This result highlights that whilst EVs offer an important contribution to decarbonisation in the transport sector it will be necessary to look at other transport mitigation strategies, such as modal shift to public transit, car sharing and demand management, to achieve both near-term and long-term mitigation targets.