Agent-based modeling of deforestation in southern Yucatan, Mexico, and reforestation in the Midwest United States.
Agent-based modeling of deforestation in southern Yucatan, Mexico, and reforestation in the Midwest United States.
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基于代理的墨西哥尤卡坦半岛南部森林砍伐和美国中西部重新造林建模。
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0705802104
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Evans,Tom
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Manson,StevenM;Evans,Tom
我们将混合方法研究与基于主体的集成建模相结合，以了解美国和墨西哥的土地变化和经济决策。这项工作展示了可持续性科学如何从基于主体的集成建模（融合了社会、生态和信息科学的方法）和混合方法研究（融合了从定性实地研究到定量实验室实验和遥感图像解释等多种方法）的结合中受益。我们测试了印第安纳州中南部家庭层面景观管理中效用最大化行为的假设，将地块数据、航空摄影得出的土地覆盖以及实验室实验的结果联系起来。我们研究不确定性和有限信息、偏好、差异人口统计属性以及过去的经验和未来时间范围的作用。我们还使用进化规划来代表墨西哥尤卡坦州南部农业家庭的有限理性。这种方法捕捉了现实的经验法则策略，同时以类似于计量经济学模型的方式识别社会和环境因素。这些案例研究强调了决策计算模型在土地变化背景下的作用，并增进了我们对决策的总体理解。
We combine mixed-methods research with integrated agent-based modeling to understand land change and economic decision making in the United States and Mexico. This work demonstrates how sustainability science benefits from combining integrated agent-based modeling (which blends methods from the social, ecological, and information sciences) and mixed-methods research (which interleaves multiple approaches ranging from qualitative field research to quantitative laboratory experiments and interpretation of remotely sensed imagery). We test assumptions of utility-maximizing behavior in household-level landscape management in south-central Indiana, linking parcel data, land cover derived from aerial photography, and findings from laboratory experiments. We examine the role of uncertainty and limited information, preferences, differential demographic attributes, and past experience and future time horizons. We also use evolutionary programming to represent bounded rationality in agriculturalist households in the southern Yucatán of Mexico. This approach captures realistic rule of thumb strategies while identifying social and environmental factors in a manner similar to econometric models. These case studies highlight the role of computational models of decision making in land-change contexts and advance our understanding of decision making in general.