Impact of COVID-19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in ChinaJEL codes
Impact of COVID-19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in ChinaJEL codes
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DOI：
10.1111/ajae.12211
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发表时间：
2021-03-07
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Jin, Songqing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ruan, Jianqing;Cai, Qingwen;Jin, Songqing
本文采用时间回归不连续设计（T-RD）和差中差（DID）相结合的方法，利用151个大白菜批发市场多年的日价格数据，对严格封锁政策对蔬菜价格的因果效应进行了识别和量化。我们发现，封锁政策造成了大白菜价格和价格离散的大幅度和即时的飙升，虽然他们在正常年份的同期波动平稳。DID结果进一步显示，价格飙升在封锁第四周达到顶峰，但到第11周逐渐降至正常年份的水平。然而，价格于4月中旬因COVID-19疫情在数个省份重新爆发而再度上涨（尽管幅度小得多），但于第15周封城措施大致解除后迅速恢复至正常水平。我们还发现，供应链中断是价格上涨的驱动因素。政策含义。
In this paper, we employ a combination of time regression discontinuity design method (T-RD) and the difference-in-difference method (DID) to identify and quantify the causal effects of the strict lockdown policy on vegetable prices using multiple-year daily price data from 151 wholesale markets of Chinese cabbage. We find that the lockdown policy caused a large and immediate surge in price and price dispersion of Chinese cabbage, though they fluctuated smoothly for the same period in normal years. The DID results further show that the price surge peaked in the fourth week of lockdown but gradually came down to the level of a normal year by week 11. However, the price rose again (though to a much smaller extent) in response to the resurgence of COVID-19 in a few provinces in early-mid April but quickly returned to the normal level in week 15 when the lockdown measures were largely removed. We also find that the supply chain disruption is the driving factor for the price hike. Policy implications are drawn.