The alcohol program
The alcohol program
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DOI：
10.1016/s0301-4215(99)00005-1
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发表时间：
1999-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Goldemberg, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moreira, JR;Goldemberg, J
1970年代中期巴西启动甘蔗酒精计划的理由被描述为对第一次“石油危机”的回应以及国际市场糖价波动问题的解决方案。给出了乙醇作为燃料的技术特征，并讨论了生产成本的演变、环境和社会后果。在成本方面，1980年该计划初期，乙醇产量接近100美元/桶，由于规模经济和技术进步，乙醇产量迅速下降，到1990年降至一半，随后几年下降速度较慢。考虑到通过乙醇大量替代汽油而避免石油进口所节省的硬通货以及替代石油进口能够提供的外债数额的减少，有可能证明酒精计划是通过液体化石燃料用户支付的国家货币补贴交换美元债务的有效方式。即使为社会带来了这些经济收益，该计划的连续性也很难维持。讨论了该问题的两种解决方案：内部扩大乙醇的使用以及向工业化国家出口乙醇作为辛烷值增强剂。强调了该计划的主要吸引力——与化石燃料相比减少二氧化碳排放——主要作为工业化国家履行其对《联合国气候变化框架公约》承诺的解决方案。 (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. 保留所有权利。
The rational for the launching of the Alcohol Program from sugarcane in Brazil in the mid-1970's is described as an answer to the first "oil crisis" as well as a solution to the problem of the fluctuating sugar prices in the international market. The technical characteristics of ethanol as a fuel are given as well as a discussion of the evolution of the cost of production, environmental and social consequences. Regarding costs, ethanol production was close to 100 dollars a barrel in the initial stages of the Program in 1980 falling rapidly due to economies of scale and technological progress to half that value in 1990, followed by a slower decline in recent years. Considering the hard currency saved by avoiding oil importation through the significant displacement of gasoline by ethanol and the decrease in the amount of external debt that the displaced oil importation was able to provide it is possible to demonstrate that the Alcohol Program has been an efficient way of exchanging dollar debt by national currency subsidies which are paid by the liquid fossil fuel users. Even with this economic gains for society, the continuity of the Program is difficult to maintain. Two solutions to this problem are discussed: internal expansion of the use of ethanol and exports to industrialized countries where it could be used as an octane enhancer. The main attractiveness of the Program - the reduction of CO2 emissions as compared to fossil fuels - is stressed, mainly as a solution for industrialized countries to fulfill their commitments with the United Nations Framework Climate Change Convention. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.