Reconstruction of flood events based on documentary data and transnational flood risk analysis of the Upper Rhine and its French and German tributaries since AD 1480
Reconstruction of flood events based on documentary data and transnational flood risk analysis of the Upper Rhine and its French and German tributaries since AD 1480
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-19-4149-2015
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发表时间：
2015-10
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
I. Himmelsbach;R. Glaser;J. Schönbein;D. Riemann;B. Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
I. Himmelsbach;R. Glaser;J. Schönbein;D. Riemann;B. Martin
本文对自公元前1480年开始沿莱茵河上游水系南部及其在法国和德国的14条支流的洪水发生情况进行了长期分析。特别关注洪水事件的时间和空间变化及其潜在的气象原因。举例说明了关于洪水事件的长期信息和关于特定地区防洪的历史方面的知识如何有助于提高对风险分析的理解，从而有助于跨国风险管理。在此背景下，特别关注洪水脆弱性，同时比较选定的历史和现代极端事件，建立一个共同的评估方案。分析支流时，跨国因素变得尤为明显：在这个规模上，法国和德国的防洪发展截然不同。我们认为，比较从19世纪初开始由德国巴登公爵发起的高技术防洪标准，误导了人们的普遍信念，即堤坝和拦河坝等机械防洪手段可以确保免受洪水及其影响的安全。这导致到今天在可能不安全的地区建立了广泛的定居点，建立了基础设施和现代工业。位于莱茵河法国一侧的阿尔萨斯的法律地位不允许采取持续的防洪措施，导致不断提醒人们，泛滥平原是一个潜在的不安全之地，这可能是最后一个恼人的提醒。从现代洪水风险管理的角度来看，这导致阿尔萨斯小河泛滥平原的价值比巴登一侧的低得多--这是一个有趣的事实--特别是如果考虑到现代欧洲洪水指令的话。
This paper presents the long-term analysis of flood occurrence along the southern part of the Upper Rhine River system and of 14 of its tributaries in France and Germany covering the period starting from 1480 BC. Special focus is given on the temporal and spatial variations of flood events and their underlying meteorological causes over time. Examples are presented of how long-term information about flood events and knowledge about the historical aspect of flood protection in a given area can help to improve the understanding of risk analysis and therefor transnational risk management. Within this context, special focus is given to flood vulnerability while comparing selected historical and modern extreme events, establishing a common evaluation scheme. The transnational aspect becomes especially evident analyzing the tributaries: on this scale, flood protection developed impressively different on the French and German sides. We argue that comparing high technological standards of flood protection, which were initiated by the dukes of Baden on the German side starting in the early 19th century, misled people to the common belief that the mechanical means of flood protection like dams and barrages can guarantee the security from floods and their impacts. This lead to widespread settlements and the establishment of infrastructure as well as modern industries in potentially unsafe areas until today. The legal status in Alsace on the French side of the Rhine did not allow for continuous flood protection measurements, leading to a constant – and probably at last annoying – reminder that the floodplains are a potentially unsafe place to be. From a modern perspective of flood risk management, this leads to a significant lower aggregation of value in the floodplains of the small rivers in Alsace compared to those on the Baden side – an interesting fact – especially if the modern European Flood directive is taken into account.