The prospect for modal shifts in passenger transport worldwide and impacts on energy use and CO2
The prospect for modal shifts in passenger transport worldwide and impacts on energy use and CO2
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2010.07.017
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发表时间：
2012-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Staub, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cuenot, Francois;Fulton, Lew;Staub, John
大多数国家的旅行统计数据都存在许多不确定性。但正如本文所述，国际能源署已经开发了一个足够的数据库，可以按方式估算世界主要国家和地区的旅客出行，并产生一致的出行和能源使用估算，这可能是同类中的第一个。例如，我们估计 2005 年全球使用机动方式的旅客出行总量约为 40 万亿公里，即每人约 6000 公里。 IEA 还制定了一套到 2050 年的旅行预测，包括基线和“模式转变”情景。本文提供了分析结果，并估计了到 2050 年汽车和航空旅行相对于当年基准减少 25% 对二氧化碳排放的潜在影响。还描述了用于支持研究结果的建模工作和政策分析。 (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
Travel statistics for most countries are subject to numerous uncertainties. But as presented in this paper, the IEA has developed a sufficient database to estimate passenger travel by mode for major countries and regions around the world, and produce consistent travel and energy use estimates, perhaps the first of their kind. For example, we estimate that in 2005 total global passenger travel using motorised modes was about 40 trillion kilometres, or about 6000 per person. The IEA has also developed a set of travel projections to 2050, including a Baseline and a "Modal Shift" scenario. This paper provides the result of this analysis and estimates the potential impacts on CO2 from a 25% reduction in car and air travel by 2050 relative to the Baseline in that year. The modelling effort and policy analysis used to support the findings are also described. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.