Population structure, intergroup interaction, and human contact govern infectious disease impacts in mountain gorilla populations
Population structure, intergroup interaction, and human contact govern infectious disease impacts in mountain gorilla populations
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种群结构、群体间相互作用和人类接触控制传染病对山地大猩猩种群的影响
DOI：
10.1002/ajp.23350
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
M. Stoskopf
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Whittier;F. Nutter;Philip L. F. Johnson;P. Cross;J. Lloyd;B. Slenning;M. Stoskopf
人畜共患传染病是对野生动物保护和全球健康的威胁。它们尤其令人关切的是野生猿类，因为它们容易感染许多人类传染病。随着生态旅游、森林砍伐和大型猿类野外研究的增加，人类感染对野生种群的威胁变得更加严重，并可能导致毁灭性的种群下降。非洲中东部维龙加山脉（Virunga Massif）的濒危山地大猩猩（Gorilla beringei beringei）遭受周期性疾病爆发，并暴露于人类来源的病原体感染。重要的是要了解疾病在这一人群中引入和传播的可能风险，以及人类接触如何促进疾病传播。在这里，我们提出并评估了一个基于个体的、随机的、离散时间的疾病传播模型，以预测流行病的结果，并更好地了解维龙加山地大猩猩种群的健康风险。为了模拟疾病传播，我们已经得出了大猩猩接触，相互作用和迁移率的估计。该模型表明，大猩猩种群的社会结构在控制疾病影响方面发挥着深远的作用，细分种群的爆发水平不到单一同质种群的25%。它预测，大猩猩群体的扩散和有限的群体相互作用是预防传染病在人口中传播后大规模爆发的有力因素。然而，即使是适度的人类接触也会增加疾病的传播，并可能导致人口水平的爆发。
Infectious zoonotic diseases are a threat to wildlife conservation and global health. They are especially a concern for wild apes, which are vulnerable to many human infectious diseases. As ecotourism, deforestation, and great ape field research increase, the threat of human‐sourced infections to wild populations becomes more substantial and could result in devastating population declines. The endangered mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) of the Virunga Massif in east‐central Africa suffer periodic disease outbreaks and are exposed to infections from human‐sourced pathogens. It is important to understand the possible risks of disease introduction and spread in this population and how human contact may facilitate disease transmission. Here we present and evaluate an individual‐based, stochastic, discrete‐time disease transmission model to predict epidemic outcomes and better understand health risks to the Virunga mountain gorilla population. To model disease transmission we have derived estimates for gorilla contact, interaction, and migration rates. The model shows that the social structure of gorilla populations plays a profound role in governing disease impacts with subdivided populations experiencing less than 25% of the outbreak levels of a single homogeneous population. It predicts that gorilla group dispersal and limited group interactions are strong factors in preventing widespread population‐level outbreaks of infectious disease after such diseases have been introduced into the population. However, even a moderate amount of human contact increases disease spread and can lead to population‐level outbreaks.
21世纪的保护：以大猩猩为案例研究
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Wrangham RW;et. al.
通讯作者：
et. al.