Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of Multiscale Weather and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves during the Active Phase of an MJO
Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of Multiscale Weather and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves during the Active Phase of an MJO
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DOI：
10.1175/jas-d-17-0157.1
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发表时间：
2017-11
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Y. Ying;Fuqing Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Ying;Fuqing Zhang
摘要通过一系列基于WRF模式的对流允许区域尺度集合，研究了2011年10月12日至11月12日印度洋Madden-Julian振荡（MJO）活动期多尺度天气和对流耦合赤道波的可预报性。据发现，实际的可预测性限制，估计传播的合奏扰动与现实的初始和边界的不确定性，是多达8天的水平风，温度和湿度的尺度大于2000公里，包括赤道Rossby，开尔文，惯性重力，和混合Rossby重力波。实际可预报性极限随着尺度的减小而迅速减小，导致尺度小于200公里的可预报时间尺度小于1天。通过进一步的实验，使用微小的初始和边界扰动的数量级小于目前的现实不确定性，…
AbstractThrough a series of convection-permitting regional-scale ensembles based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, this study investigates the predictability of multiscale weather and convectively coupled equatorial waves during the active phase of a Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) event over the Indian Ocean from 12 October to 12 November 2011. It is found that the practical predictability limit, estimated by the spread of the ensemble perturbed with realistic initial and boundary uncertainties, is as much as 8 days for horizontal winds, temperature, and humidity for scales larger than 2000 km that include equatorial Rossby, Kelvin, inertia–gravity, and mixed Rossby–gravity waves. The practical predictability limit decreases rapidly as scale decreases, resulting in a predictable time scale less than 1 day for scales smaller than 200 km. Through further experiments using minute initial and boundary perturbations an order of magnitude smaller than the current realistic uncertainties, the...