The Timeline of Elections: A Comparative Perspective
The Timeline of Elections: A Comparative Perspective
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选举时间表：比较视角
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Christopher Wlezien
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Jennings;Christopher Wlezien
学者们才刚刚开始了解选举情绪随时间的演变。在不同国家的选举周期中，偏好是如何成为焦点的？它们是以模式化的方式进化的吗？各国的发展情况是否各不相同？本文件讨论这些问题。我们考虑了政治制度的差异，以及它们如何影响选民在选举周期中的偏好。然后，我们概述了一个实证分析有关支持政党或候选人在选举前的民意调查，他们的最终投票。该分析依赖于自1942年以来在45个国家进行的超过26，000次投票意向调查，涵盖了312个独立的选举周期。我们的研究结果表明，早期的民意调查包含有关最终结果的大量信息，但它们在选举周期中变得越来越翔实。尽管由于政治制度的差异，这种情况在不同国家的程度存在重要和可以理解的差异，但这种模式具有惊人的普遍性。
Scholars are only beginning to understand the evolution of electoral sentiment over time. How do preferences come into focus over the electoral cycle in different countries? Do they evolve in patterned ways? Does the evolution vary across countries? This paper addresses these issues. We consider differences in political institutions and how they might impact voter preferences over the course of the election cycle. We then outline an empirical analysis relating support for parties or candidates in pre-election polls to their final vote. The analysis relies on over 26,000 vote intention polls in 45 countries since 1942, covering 312 discrete electoral cycles. Our results indicate that early polls contain substantial information about the final result but that they become increasingly informative over the election cycle. Although the degree to which this is true varies across countries in important and understandable ways given differences in political institutions, the pattern is strikingly general.