A continental system for forecasting bird migration
A continental system for forecasting bird migration
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aat7526
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发表时间：
2018-09-14
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Horton, Kyle G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Van Doren, Benjamin M.;Horton, Kyle G.
每年有数十亿动物在季节性迁徙期间穿越全球，但监测它们的努力却因它们的活动的不可预测性而受到阻碍。我们利用 23 年的春季观测数据，开发了大陆范围内的鸟类迁徙预报系统，以确定大气条件与鸟类迁徙强度之间的关联。我们的模型解释了美国境内海拔 0 到 3000 米的迁徙强度高达 81% 的变化，并且在提前 1 到 7 天预测事件方面表现仍然很高（解释了 62% 到 76% 的变化）。在高峰期，美国各地的鸟类迁徙活动每晚可能超过 5 亿只。鸟类迁徙预测将减少与建筑物、飞机和风力涡轮机的碰撞；为各种监测工作提供信息；并让公众参与。
Billions of animals cross the globe each year during seasonal migrations, but efforts to monitor them are hampered by the unpredictability of their movements. We developed a bird migration forecast system at a continental scale by leveraging 23 years of spring observations to identify associations between atmospheric conditions and bird migration intensity. Our models explained up to 81% of variation in migration intensity across the United States at altitudes of 0 to 3000 meters, and performance remained high in forecasting events 1 to 7 days in advance (62 to 76% of variation was explained). Avian migratory movements across the United States likely exceed 500 million individuals per night during peak passage. Bird migration forecasts will reduce collisions with buildings, airplanes, and wind turbines; inform a variety of monitoring efforts; and engage the public.