Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security
Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security
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DOI：
10.3390/geographies3030027
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发表时间：
2023-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Alessa;James Valentine;Sean K Moon;Christopher McComb;Sierra Hicks;V. Romanovsky;Ming Xiao;A. Kliskey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Alessa;James Valentine;Sean K Moon;Christopher McComb;Sierra Hicks;V. Romanovsky;Ming Xiao;A. Kliskey
用于评估社区风险、脆弱性和复原力以协助研究和政策规划的综合指标工具的数量有所增加。然而，现有的研究表明，这些综合指标在方法、选定的变量、汇总方法和样本规模方面差异很大。其结果是有过多的定性和定量综合指数可供选择。尽管每一个提供有价值的基于位置的信息，具体的社区和他们的质量，研究的结果，每个使用不同的方法，不能很容易地集成用于决策，考虑到不同的索引属性和研究地点。像世界上许多地区一样，北极正在经历气温变化的加剧，这是不断变化的行星气候的直接后果。多年冻土变化的级联效应特征不佳，从而限制了多尺度的响应。我们提出，通过考虑永久冻土，基础设施和社区特征的不同模式的影响之间的空间相互作用，现有的研究使用不同的综合指数和框架可以得到增强。我们使用了系统科学和基于地点的知识方法，通过空间相互作用的邻近模型来解释子系统和级联影响。使用两个现有的指数：相关的基础设施和永久冻土范围，在阿拉斯加计算了估计的“永久冻土脆弱性表面”。在186个社区和30个军事设施中，该表面的价值被提取出来，并被命令与德纳里委员会在其对永久冻土威胁的评估中的数字排名相匹配，从而可以准确地比较永久冻土威胁排名和PVI排名。植被指数背后的方法提供了一种工具，可以将多种风险、抗御力和脆弱性指数结合起来，以帮助适应规划，特别是在不存在使用相同标准和方法的具有良好地理样本分布的大规模研究的情况下。
There has been a growth in the number of composite indicator tools used to assess community risk, vulnerability, and resilience, to assist study and policy planning. However, existing research shows that these composite indicators vary extensively in method, selected variables, aggregation methods, and sample size. The result is a plethora of qualitative and quantitative composite indices to choose from. Despite each providing valuable location-based information about specific communities and their qualities, the results of studies, each using disparate methods, cannot easily be integrated for use in decision making, given the different index attributes and study locations. Like many regions in the world, the Arctic is experiencing increased variability in temperatures as a direct consequence of a changing planetary climate. Cascading effects of changes in permafrost are poorly characterized, thus limiting response at multiple scales. We offer that by considering the spatial interaction between the effects of permafrost, infrastructure, and diverse patterns of community characteristics, existing research using different composite indices and frameworks can be augmented. We used a system-science and place-based knowledge approach that accounts for sub-system and cascade impacts through a proximity model of spatial interaction. An estimated ‘permafrost vulnerability surface’ was calculated across Alaska using two existing indices: relevant infrastructure and permafrost extent. The value of this surface in 186 communities and 30 military facilities was extracted and ordered to match the numerical rankings of the Denali Commission in their assessment of permafrost threat, allowing accurate comparison between the permafrost threat ranks and the PVI rankings. The methods behind the PVI provide a tool that can incorporate multiple risk, resilience, and vulnerability indices to aid adaptation planning, especially where large-scale studies with good geographic sample distribution using the same criteria and methods do not exist.