Prediction of extinction in plants:: Interaction of extrinsic threats and life history traits
Prediction of extinction in plants:: Interaction of extrinsic threats and life history traits
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DOI：
10.1890/06-1453.1
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发表时间：
2007-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Silvertown, Jonathan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Freville, Helene;McConway, Kevin;Silvertown, Jonathan
全球物种灭绝是通过当地种群的侵蚀而发生的。使用60年的植物物种年度目击记录的时间序列，我们研究了与公园草实验中物种灭绝风险相关的局部灭绝风险的相关性，在该实验中，植物长期暴露于营养富集、土壤酸化和栖息地大小减少。我们使用多变量线性模型来评估外部威胁和生活史特征如何影响灭绝风险。我们调查了四个外在威胁（氮富集，生产力，酸化和地块大小）以及11个生活史特征（最早的月份）的影响。开花，开花持续时间、胁迫耐受性、杂草性[植物物种科普生境干扰的能力]、植物高度、繁殖体质量、种子库、生活型、传播模式、无融合生殖[物种通过种子无性繁殖的能力]和交配系统）。灭绝风险不受植物家族的影响。所有的11个生活史特征，除了生命形式和所有的威胁变量影响灭绝风险，但总是通过相互作用，通常涉及一个威胁变量和一个生活史特征。我们发现生活史性状之间的相互作用相对较少，相互作用的性状相互补偿。这些结果表明，仅仅基于物种特征对灭绝风险的简单预测往往会失败。相比之下，了解外在威胁和生活史特征之间的相互作用将使我们能够更准确地预测防御。
The global extinction of species proceeds through the erosion of local populations. Using a 60- year time series of annual sighting records of plant species, we studied the correlates of local extinction risk associated with a risk of species extinction in the Park Grass Experiment where plants received long- term exposure to nutrient enrichment, soil acidification, and reductions in habitat size. We used multivariate linear models to assess how extrinsic threats and life history traits influence extinction risk. We investigated effects of four extrinsic threats ( nitrogen enrichment, productivity, acidification, and plot size) as well as 11 life history traits ( month of earliest. flowering,. flowering duration, stress tolerance, ruderalness [ plant species' ability to cope with habitat disturbance], plant height, diaspore mass, seed bank, life form, dispersal mode, apomixis [ the ability for a species to reproduce asexually through seeds], and mating system). Extinction risk was not influenced by plant family. All of the 11 life history traits except life form and all threat variables influenced extinction risk but always via interactions which typically involved one threat variable and one life history trait. We detected comparatively few significant interactions between life history traits, and the interacting traits compensated for each other. These results suggest that simple predictions about extinction risk based on species' traits alone will often fail. In contrast, understanding the interactions between extrinsic threats and life history traits will allow us to make more accurate predictions of extinctions.