The impact of near-real-time deforestation alerts across the tropics
The impact of near-real-time deforestation alerts across the tropics
复制标题
热带地区近实时森林砍伐警报的影响
作者：
Fanny Moffette;J. Alix;K. Shea;A. Pickens
减少森林砍伐以减缓气候变化，就必须监测森林砍伐活动。然而，虽然可以免费获得关于森林丧失的森林砍伐警报，但这些警报的效果和订户在特定地区的存在尚不清楚。在这里，我们显示，与2011-2016年的平均水平相比，22个热带国家的警报订阅使非洲森林砍伐的可能性降低了18%。这对其他大陆没有影响，警报的提供也不会显著改变森林砍伐的结果。非洲的这一降幅在保护区和特许区更高，这表明警报要么提高了执行现有森林砍伐政策的能力，要么促使制定了更有效的反森林砍伐政策。根据非洲为避免森林砍伐而产生的碳社会成本计算，我们估计警报系统的价值在1.49亿美元到6.96亿美元之间。避免砍伐森林是许多气候缓解战略的重要组成部分，但需要监测才能执行。订阅森林砍伐警报将非洲森林砍伐的可能性降低了18%，基于碳的社会成本，产生了1.49亿至6.96亿美元的价值。
Reducing deforestation to mitigate climate change necessitates monitoring of deforestation activity. However, while freely available deforestation alerts on forest loss are available, the effect of these alerts and the presence of subscribers in a particular area is unclear. Here, we show that subscriptions to alerts in 22 tropical countries decrease the probability of deforestation in Africa by 18% relative to the average 2011–2016 levels. There is no effect on other continents, and the availability of alerts does not significantly change deforestation outcomes. This decrease in Africa is higher in protected areas and concessions, suggesting that alerts either increased capacity to enforce existing deforestation policy or induced the development of more effective anti-deforestation policies. Calculated using the social cost of carbon for avoided deforestation in Africa, we estimate the alert system’s value to be between US$149 million and US$696 million. Avoided deforestation is an important part of many climate mitigation strategies, yet monitoring is needed for enforcement. Subscriptions to deforestation alerts lowered the probability of deforestation in Africa by 18%, generating a value of US$149–696 million based on the social cost of carbon.