Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Middle Rio Grande Surface Water Supplies Using a Simple Water Balance Reservoir Model
Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Middle Rio Grande Surface Water Supplies Using a Simple Water Balance Reservoir Model
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DOI：
10.1175/ei-d-21-0025.1
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发表时间：
2022-01-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Chavira, Luis Garnica
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Holmes, Robyn N.;Mayer, Alex;Chavira, Luis Garnica
格兰德河中游是该地区重要的灌溉水源。气候变化正在影响地区水文，并可能给本已捉襟见肘的供水带来额外压力。为了深入了解气候变化对水库蓄水的水文影响，用一个简单的水量平衡模型模拟了新墨西哥州南部的Elephant Butte-Caballo水库系统。水平衡模型是由来自CMIP5全球气候模型的97个气候模拟产生的水文输入强制进行的，并与地表水文模型相耦合。结果表明，与过去50年(1971-2020年)相比，未来50年(2021-70年)水库泄洪满足农业水权分配的年份百分比将会减少。该模型还预测，多年干旱事件将增加，这些事件阻碍了水库管理战略，以保持较高的蓄水水平。在大多数情况下，来自上游较远积雪融化的水库流入的变化预计将对水库的蓄水和水库下游的可用水产生更大的影响，而不是当地蒸发和来自水库表面的降水的变化。
The middle Rio Grande is a vital source of water for irrigation in the region. Climate change is impacting regional hydrology and is likely to put additional stress on a water supply that is already stretched thin. To gain insight on the hydrologic effects of climate change on reservoir storage, a simple water balance model was used to simulate the Elephant Butte-Caballo Reservoir system (southern New Mexico). The water balance model was forced by hydrologic inputs generated by 97 climate simulations derived from CMIP5 global climate models, coupled to a surface hydrologic model. Results suggest that the percentage of years that reservoir releases satisfy agricultural water rights allocations over the next 50 years (2021-70) will decrease relative to the past 50 years (1971-2020). The modeling also projects an increase in multiyear drought events that hinder reservoir management strategies to maintain high storage levels. In most cases, changes in reservoir inflows from distant upstream snowmelt is projected to have a greater influence on reservoir storage and water availability downstream of the reservoirs than will changes in local evaporation and precipitation from the reservoir surfaces.