Predicting the distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau via the MaxEnt model.
Predicting the distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau via the MaxEnt model.
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利用MaxEnt模型预测青藏高原紫花针茅的分布
DOI：
10.1186/s12898-018-0165-0
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发表时间：
2018-02-21
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Sun J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ma B;Sun J
受气候变暖影响，青藏高原生态系统正在发生快速变化，时空环境格局发生显着变化。紫花针茅作为高寒草原的优势药材资源，对青藏高原畜牧业影响较大。预计全球变暖将在未来（2050 年代、2070 年代）持续下去，这对紫花紫藻的未来分布及其对气候变化的响应提出了质疑。最大熵（MaxEnt）建模由于其多种优点（例如，使用仅存在的数据、在不完整的数据下表现良好、并且需要小样本量和间隙），已被用于了解物种环境关系并预测未采样的位置上的物种分布。年平均气温、年降水量、气温季节、海拔高度、最旱月降水量对紫花紫花的分布影响显着。只有 0.70% 的青藏高原地区拥有非常适宜的栖息地（栖息地适宜性 [HS] = 0.8–1.0）。高度适宜生境（HS=0.6~0.8）、中等适宜生境（HS=0.4~0.6）和不适宜生境（HS=0.2~0.4）分别占青藏高原面积的6.20%、14.30%和22.40%，青藏高原大部分地区（56.40%）构成高度不适宜生境（HS = 0–0.2）。此外，广义加性模型模拟的物种生态适宜性响应曲线与MaxEnt模型生成的响应曲线基本一致。从时间尺度上看，紫花草的栖息地适宜性在1990年代至2050年代呈上升趋势，但在2050年代至2070年代呈下降趋势。从空间尺度来看，紫花紫花未来的分布不会出现大范围的变化，仍将停留在青藏高原中部和东南部地区。这些结果有利于当地畜牧业，并为建立合理的管理措施提供了依据。本文的在线版本 (10.1186/s12898-018-0165-0) 包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
The ecosystems across Tibetan Plateau are changing rapidly under the influence of climate warming, which has caused substantial changes in spatial and temporal environmental patterns. Stipa purpurea, as a dominant herbsage resource in alpine steppe, has a great influence on animal husbandry in the Tibetan Plateau. Global warming has been forecasted to continue in the future (2050s, 2070s), questioning the future distribution of S. purpurea and its response to climate change. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling, due to its multiple advantages (e.g. uses presence-only data, performs well with incomplete data, and requires small sample sizes and gaps), has been used to understand species environment relationships and predict species distributions across locations that have not been sampled. Annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, temperature seasonality, altitude, and precipitation during the driest month, significantly affected the distribution of S. purpurea. Only 0.70% of the Tibetan Plateau area included a very highly suitable habitat (habitat suitability [HS] = 0.8–1.0). Highly suitable habitat (HS = 0.6–0.8), moderately suitable habitat (HS = 0.4–0.6), and unsuitable habitat (HS = 0.2–0.4) occupied 6.20, 14.30 and 22.40% of the Tibetan Plateau area, respectively, and the majority (56.40%) of the Tibetan Plateau area constituted a highly unsuitable habitat (HS = 0–0.2). In addition, the response curves of species ecological suitability simulated by generalized additive model nearly corresponded with the response curves generated by the MaxEnt model. At a temporal scale, the habitat suitability of S. purpurea tends to increase from the 1990s to 2050s, but decline from the 2050s to 2070s. At a spatial scale, the future distribution of S. purpurea will not exhibit sweeping changes and will remain in the central and southeastern regions of the Tibetan Plateau. These results benefit the local animal husbandry and provide evidence for establishing reasonable management practices. The online version of this article (10.1186/s12898-018-0165-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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