A joint modeling of injury severity and collision type for examining influential factors of traffic accidents occurring at intersections of national highways in Japan
A joint modeling of injury severity and collision type for examining influential factors of traffic accidents occurring at intersections of national highways in Japan
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DOI：
10.11175/eastpro.2009.0.350.0
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Patwary;Junyi Zhang;A. Fujiwara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Patwary;Junyi Zhang;A. Fujiwara
本文的目的是提供额外的见解，使用双变量有序概率模型，同时检查影响伤害严重程度（IS）和碰撞类型（CT）的交通事故发生在日本国道交叉口的影响因素。利用大规模交通事故数据对二元模型的有效性进行了验证。IS和CT的误差项之间的校正是统计上显着的，这意味着有一些不可观察的因素，同时影响IS和CT，但没有很好地捕捉在传统的事故调查。六种类型的碰撞处理和他们的影响因素进行审查方面的主要和次要当事人。一个复杂的结构的影响因素是明确的，它是预期的，这种复杂性不能正确地捕获的基础上广泛应用的交叉聚合方法在实践中。
This paper aim to provide additional insights of using a bivariate ordered probit model to simultaneously examine influential factors that affect injury severity (IS) and collision type (CT) of traffic accidents occurring on intersections of national highways in Japan. The effectiveness of the bivariate model is re-confirmed using large-scaled traffic accident data. The corrections between error terms of IS and CT are statistically significant, implying that there are some unobserved factors that simultaneously affect IS and CT, but are not well captured in traditional accident surveys. Six types of collisions are dealt with and their influential factors are examined with respect to both primary and secondary parties. A complicated structure of influential factors is clarified, and it is expected that such complexity cannot be properly captured based on the widely applied cross-aggregation method in practice.