Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab.
Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab.
复制标题
基于列线图的接受一线化疗的晚期食管胃腺癌患者的生存预测：曲妥珠单抗时代的一项多中心前瞻性研究。
DOI：
10.1038/bjc.2017.122
复制
发表时间：
2017-06-06
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Gallego J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Custodio A;Carmona-Bayonas A;Jiménez-Fonseca P;Sánchez ML;Viudez A;Hernández R;Cano JM;Echavarria I;Pericay C;Mangas M;Visa L;Buxo E;García T;Rodríguez Palomo A;Álvarez Manceñido F;Lacalle A;Macias I;Azkarate A;Ramchandani A;Fernández Montes A;López C;Longo F;Sánchez Bayona R;Limón ML;Díaz-Serrano A;Hurtado A;Madero R;Gómez C;Gallego J
To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination. The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5–6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5–10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8–16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the derivation set and 4.6 (95% CI, 3.3–8.1), 12.7 (95% CI, 11.3–14.3), and 18.3 months (95% CI, 14.6–24.2) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the validation set. The nomogram is well-calibrated and reveals acceptable discriminatory capacity, with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.618 (95% CI, 0.591–0.631) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.636–0.709) in derivation and validation groups, respectively. The AGAMENON nomogram outperformed the Royal Marsden Hospital (c-index=0.583; P=0.00046) and Japan Clinical Oncology Group prognostic indices (c-index=0.611; P=0.03351). We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Takahari, Daisuke;Boku, Narikazu;Ohtsu, Atsushi
通讯作者：
Ohtsu, Atsushi
影响因子：
45.3
作者：
Ohtsu, Atsushi;Shah, Manish A.;Kang, Yoon-Koo
通讯作者：
Kang, Yoon-Koo
DOI：
10.6004/jnccn.2016.0148
发表时间：
2016-11-01
影响因子：
13.4
作者：
Carmona-Bayonas, Alberto;Jimenez-Fonseca, Paula;Rivera, Fernando
通讯作者：
Rivera, Fernando
影响因子：
7.4
作者：
Jimenez-Fonseca, Paula;Carmona-Bayonas, Alberto;Gomez-Martin, Carlos
通讯作者：
Gomez-Martin, Carlos
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
Cristescu, Razvan;Lee, Jeeyun;Aggarwal, Amit
通讯作者：
Aggarwal, Amit