Climate change adaptation in crop production: Beware of illusions
Climate change adaptation in crop production: Beware of illusions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gfs.2014.05.002
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Lobell, David B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lobell, David B.
研究气候变化适应的主要目标是估计气候变化的净影响。农业管理和技术方面的许多潜在变化，包括作物物候的变化以及干旱和耐热性的提高，将有助于提高作物生产力，但不一定代表真正的适应。这里讨论了保留严格的适应定义的重要性 - 作为减少气候变化负面影响或增强气候变化正面影响的行动 - 以及研究曲解各种变化的适应效益的常见方式。这些“适应幻觉”是由错误的逻辑、模型错误和管理假设综合产生的，这些假设忽视了农民利用特定技术实现利润最大化的趋势。需要对适应进行更加一致的处理，以便更好地为气候变化影响的综合评估提供信息，并更容易地识别在未来气候中比在当前或过去气候中真正更有效的农业创新。当然，未来几十年农业领域的一些最佳创新可能不会带来适应效益，这使得它们同样值得关注。 (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
A primary goal of studying climate change adaptation is to estimate the net impacts of climate change. Many potential changes in agricultural management and technology, including shifts in crop phenology and improved drought and heat tolerance, would help to improve crop productivity but do not necessarily represent true adaptations. Here the importance of retaining a strict definition of adaptation - as an action that reduces negative or enhances positive impacts of climate change - is discussed, as are common ways in which studies misinterpret the adaptation benefits of various changes. These "adaptation illusions" arise from a combination of faulty logic, model errors, and management assumptions that ignore the tendency for Farmers to maximize profits for a given technology. More consistent treatment of adaptation is needed to better inform synthetic assessments of climate change impacts, and to more easily identify innovations in agriculture that are truly more effective in Future climates than in current or past ones. Of course, some of the best innovations in agriculture in coming decades may have no adaptation benefits, and that makes them no less worthy of attention. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.