Ocean Warming Effect on Surface Gravity Wave Climate Change for the End of the Twenty-First Century
Ocean Warming Effect on Surface Gravity Wave Climate Change for the End of the Twenty-First Century
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-12-00410.1
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发表时间：
2013-08-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Wang, Xiaolan L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fan, Yalin;Held, Isaac M.;Wang, Xiaolan L.
利用耦合模式比较项目（CMIP3）耦合模式(使用政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告(IPCC AR4)/ A1B排放情景特别报告（SRES A1B）情景，耦合模式（WGCM）第三阶段产生的异常扰动海面温度（SSTs），利用耦合大气-波耦合模式研究了地表风（U-10）和显著波高（Hs）对全球变暖的响应21世纪。在所有四种季节方法中都观察到一些一致的变化：由于急流向极地移动，南大洋南部夏季和冬季的U-10和Hs都强劲增加；由于北大西洋涛动（NAO）正相的频繁出现，北大西洋北纬冬季U-10和Hs的偶极子型在东北扇区增加，在中纬度减少；南侧夏季热带西太平洋U-10和Hs明显减弱，这可能是Walker环流减弱和南太平洋飓风频次大幅减少共同作用的结果。第99百分位U-10和Hs的变化强度是季节平均变化的2倍，最大变化主要由飓风的变化主导。南太平洋U-10和Hs的强劲下降是由于飓风频率的大幅减少，而北半球盆地的结果在不同模式下有所不同。另一项灵敏度实验表明，仅使用海温异常和维持辐射强迫不变（使用1980年值）并不影响U-10和Hs的定性响应，就像本研究一样。
Surface wind (U-10) and significant wave height (Hs) response to global warming are investigated using a coupled atmosphere-wave model by perturbing the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) with anomalies generated by the Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) coupled models that use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B) scenario late in the twenty-first century.Several consistent changes were observed across all four realizations for the seasonal means: robust increase of U-10 and Hs in the Southern Ocean for both the austral summer and winter due to the poleward shift of the jet stream; a dipole pattern of the U-10 and Hs with increases in the northeast sector and decreases at the midlatitude during boreal winter in the North Atlantic due to the more frequent occurrence of the positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); and strong decrease of U-10 and Hs in the tropical western Pacific Ocean during austral summer, which might be caused by the joint effect of the weakening of the Walker circulation and the large hurricane frequency decrease in the South Pacific.Changes of the 99th percentile U-10 and Hs are twice as strong as changes in the seasonal means, and the maximum changes are mainly dominated by the changes in hurricanes. Robust strong decreases of U-10 and Hs in the South Pacific are obtained because of the large hurricane frequency decrease, while the results in the Northern Hemisphere basins differ among the models. An additional sensitivity experiment suggests that the qualitative response of U-10 and Hs is not affected by using SST anomalies only and maintaining the radiative forcing unchanged (using 1980 values), as in this study.