Climatology and trend of wind power resources in China and its surrounding regions: a revisit using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data
Climatology and trend of wind power resources in China and its surrounding regions: a revisit using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.4485
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发表时间：
2016-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Lejiang Yu;S. Zhong;X. Bian;W. Heilman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lejiang Yu;S. Zhong;X. Bian;W. Heilman
利用气候预报系统再分析（CFSR）的33年（1979-2011）风场数据，对中国及其周边地区现代风力发电机轮毂高度（80 m）风速的平均气候学、季节和年际变率及趋势进行了重新审视。CFSR与以往的全球再分析产品相比，具有许多改进，包括更高的空间分辨率。中国海域和海洋区域的平均80米风速始终高于陆地，中国境内的内蒙古和青藏高原地区存在强风。有一个相当大的季节性变化，主要反映了东亚和东南亚季风的影响，冬季的风速通常较高，然后是夏季，秋季的风速较弱，然后是春季。也有很强的年际变化，较大幅度的变化区域与较高的平均风区域相吻合。夏季和秋季中国及周边海域的大气环流总体呈下降趋势，从2005年开始急剧下降，夏季陆地和海洋的大气环流趋势分别与太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）和东亚夏季风有关。然而，整个地区春季和冬季的趋势并不一致，在中国东北部和西北部、蒙古和热带海洋的一些地区呈正趋势，而在其他地区呈负趋势。中国几乎所有地区的年平均80米风速都低于6.9 m s−1（风力等级为1-2），但内蒙古的一些地区年平均80米风速超过6.9 m s−1（风力等级为3或更高，适合风能开发）。中国海域和海域总体上属于三级或以上，其中台湾海峡和吕宋海峡最高达到7级。
The mean climatology, seasonal and interannual variability and trend of wind speeds at the hub height (80 m) of modern wind turbines over China and its surrounding regions are revisited using 33‐year (1979–2011) wind data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that has many improvements including higher spatial resolution over previous global reanalysis products. Mean 80‐m wind speeds are consistently higher over China Seas and the ocean areas than over land, and inside China high winds are found in areas of Inner Mongolia and the Tibetan Plateau. There is a considerable seasonal variability that reflects primarily the influence of East and Southeast Asia Monsoon with generally higher speeds in winter followed by summer, and weaker winds in autumn, followed by spring. There is also a strong interannual variability, and regions of larger amplitude of variability coincide with regions of higher mean winds. A decreasing trend, dominated by a sharp decline beginning in 2005, is seen across China and the surrounding seas in summer and autumn, and the summer trends over land and over ocean appear to be related respectively to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the East Asian summer monsoon. Trends are not consistent across the region in spring and winter, however, with positive trends over some areas in northeastern and northwestern China, Mongolia and tropical oceans whereas negative trends in other regions. Nearly all areas of China experience mean annual 80‐m wind speed less than 6.9 m s−1 (wind power classes of 1–2) except for some areas of Inner Mongolia where mean annual 80‐m wind speeds exceed 6.9 m s−1 (Classes 3 or higher, suitable for wind energy development). China Seas and ocean areas generally fall in Class 3 or above, with the Taiwan and Luzon Straights reaching the highest Class 7.