The role of pre-emptive culling in the control of foot-and-mouth disease
The role of pre-emptive culling in the control of foot-and-mouth disease
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2009.0427
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发表时间：
2009-09-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Woolhouse, Mark E. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tildesley, Michael J.;Bessell, Paul R.;Woolhouse, Mark E. J.
2001年的口蹄疫流行是通过扑杀传染场所和旨在限制疾病传播的先发制人的扑杀来控制的。在采取的控制策略中，对受感染场所附近的农场进行常规扑杀引起了最大的争议。在此，我们对2001年对邻近场址进行的扑杀进行了回顾性分析，并对该政策对减少受疾病影响的场址的影响进行了模拟研究。我们的模拟结果支持先前的研究，并表明国家政策的连续场所（CPs）淘汰导致更少的农场损失牲畜。研究发现，控制2001年疫情的最佳国家政策是针对所有毗连的房舍，而对于动物密度高地区的局部疫情，最理想的做法是更广泛的固定半径环形扑杀。对2001年数据的分析表明，风险最低的cp通常被优先淘汰，然而，即使在这种情况下，该政策预计将是有效的。灵敏度分析和空间异质性策略的发展表明，最优扑杀水平取决于感染的基本繁殖比和扩散核的宽度。这些分析突出了一个重要且可能相当普遍的结果：最佳控制高度依赖于病原体传播的距离、感染的传播率和疾病传入的当地人口统计。
The 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic was controlled by culling of infectious premises and preemptive culling intended to limit the spread of disease. Of the control strategies adopted, routine culling of farms that were contiguous to infected premises caused the most controversy. Here we perform a retrospective analysis of the culling of contiguous premises as performed in 2001 and a simulation study of the effects of this policy on reducing the number of farms affected by disease. Our simulation results support previous studies and show that a national policy of contiguous premises (CPs) culling leads to fewer farms losing livestock. The optimal national policy for controlling the 2001 epidemic is found to be the targeting of all contiguous premises, whereas for localized outbreaks in high animal density regions, more extensive fixed radius ring culling is optimal. Analysis of the 2001 data suggests that the lowest-risk CPs were generally prioritized for culling, however, even in this case, the policy is predicted to be effective. A sensitivity analysis and the development of a spatially heterogeneous policy show that the optimal culling level depends upon the basic reproductive ratio of the infection and the width of the dispersal kernel. These analyses highlight an important and probably quite general result: optimal control is highly dependent upon the distance over which the pathogen can be transmitted, the transmission rate of infection and local demography where the disease is introduced.