Consulting the oracle: ten lessons from using the Delphi technique in nursing research
Consulting the oracle: ten lessons from using the Delphi technique in nursing research
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2648.2006.03716.x
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
McKenna, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keeney, S;Hasson, F;McKenna, H
本文的目的是提供深入了解德尔菲技术概述了我们的个人经验，在其使用超过10年的时间内，在各种application.As一种手段，达成共识的问题，德尔菲研究方法已成为广泛使用的医疗保健研究，特别是护理研究。关于这种技术的文献正在扩大，主要是解决它是什么以及如何使用它。然而，仍然有很多混乱和不确定性，特别是关于修改，共识，匿名，专家的定义，如何选择“专家”，以及如何追求non-responses.This问题时出现的规划和开展德尔菲研究包括共识的定义，匿名与准匿名的参与者的问题，如何估计收集数据、分析每一“回合”、将结果反馈给参与者并获得他们对反馈的反应所需的时间;如何确定和选择将被邀请参与的“专家”;如何提高答复率;以及要进行多少“回合”。在使用德尔菲技术时提出了许多挑战和问题，但毫无疑问，它是就以前不存在的问题达成共识的重要方法。研究人员需要调整方法以适合他们的特定研究。
The aim of this paper was to provide insight into the Delphi technique by outlining our personal experiences during its use over a 10-year period in a variety of applications.As a means of achieving consensus on an issue, the Delphi research method has become widely used in healthcare research generally and nursing research in particular. The literature on this technique is expanding, mainly addressing what it is and how it should be used. However, there is still much confusion and uncertainty surrounding it, particularly about issues such as modifications, consensus, anonymity, definition of experts, how 'experts' are selected and how non-respondents are pursued.This issues that arise when planning and carrying out a Delphi study include the definition of consensus; the issue of anonymity vs. quasi-anonymity for participants; how to estimate the time needed to collect the data, analyse each 'round', feed back results to participants, and gain their responses to this feedback; how to define and select the 'experts' who will be asked to participate; how to enhance response rates; and how many 'rounds' to conduct.Many challenges and questions are raised when using the Delphi technique, but there is no doubt that it is an important method for achieving consensus on issues where none previously existed. Researchers need to adapt the method to suit their particular study.