A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data
A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agsy.2012.05.003
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发表时间：
2012-09-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Herrero, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Claessens, L.;Antle, J. M.;Herrero, M.
预计撒哈拉以南非洲将受到气候变化的严重负面影响。气专委第四次评估强调，适应战略至关重要。在小规模、半自给农业的背景下处理适应问题提出了特殊的挑战。数据需求量大，包括特定地点的生物物理和经济数据，是一个重要的制约因素。本文采用了一种新的方法来进行影响评估，权衡分析模型的多维影响评估（TOA MD），它模拟了技术的采用和相关的经济，环境和社会后果在一个异质性的农场人口的区域影响评估。该方法使用的调查，实验和模拟的数据，通常是在半自给系统是重要的国家，结合未来的社会经济情景的基础上正在开发的新的情景路径概念的气候变化和影响评估建模社区。分析和比较了当前和未来农业系统的特征，包括土地利用、产出、产出价格、生产成本以及农场和家庭规模，包括当前和预测的未来气候（2030年）、有适应和无适应以及不同的社会经济情景。该方法适用于两个研究领域在肯尼亚。这些案例研究表明，这种方法有可能提供一个灵活的通用框架，可以使用现有的和模拟的数据，以评估气候影响和适应战略下的一系列社会经济情景。(c)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is predicted to experience considerable negative impacts of climate change. The IPCC Fourth Assessment emphasizes that adaptation strategies are essential. Addressing adaptation in the context of small-scale, semi-subsistence agriculture raises special challenges. High data demands including site-specific bio-physical and economic data are an important constraint. This paper applies a new approach to impact assessment, the Tradeoff Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD), which simulates technology adoption and associated economic, environmental and social outcomes in a heterogeneous farm population for a regional impact assessment. The methodology uses the kinds of survey, experimental and modeled data that are typically available in countries where semi-subsistence systems are important, combined with future socio-economic scenarios based on new scenario pathway concepts being developed by the climate change and impact assessment modeling communities. Characteristics of current and future agricultural systems, including land use, output, output price, cost of production, and farm and household size are analyzed and compared for both current and projected future climate (2030), with and without adaptation, and for different socio-economic scenarios. The methodology is applied to two study areas in Kenya. These case studies show the potential of this approach to provide a flexible, generic framework that can use available and modeled data to evaluate climate impact and adaptation strategies under a range of socio-economic scenarios. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.