Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution
Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution
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DOI：
10.1038/s41893-022-00976-8
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发表时间：
2022-10-24
影响因子：
27.6
通讯作者：
Peng, Wei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yang, Hui;Huang, Xinyuan;Peng, Wei
每年有数百万人的过早死亡可归因于环境颗粒物空气污染。虽然在未来情景中，随着化石燃料燃烧的减少，有害微粒的暴露会减少，但在全球大部分地区，社会人口因素主导着与空气污染有关的健康结果。目前，全球每年有数百万人因暴露于环境颗粒物（PM2.5）而过早死亡。在这里，我们使用综合建模框架评估了2015-2100年五种情景下的污染和健康未来。在全球地球系统模型（GFDL-ESM4.1）的基础上，我们发现，在对化石燃料依赖程度较低、污染控制更严格的未来情景中，全球和区域的环境PM2.5浓度都较低。在这五种情景中，与pm2.5相关的全球累计死亡人数相差两倍。然而，在变暖程度较低或空气较清洁的情况下，预计的死亡人数并不一定更低。这是因为虽然减少PM2.5污染会降低暴露水平，但增加弱势群体的规模会显著增加与PM2.5相关的死亡人数。对于大多数国家，我们发现社会人口因素的变化（例如老龄化和基线死亡率下降）在形成未来健康负担方面比暴露水平发挥更重要的作用。
Millions of premature deaths each year can be attributed to ambient particulate air pollution. While exposure to harmful particulates decreases in future scenarios with reduced fossil fuel combustion, across much of the globe, socio-demographic factors dominate health outcomes related to air pollution.Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) currently contributes to millions of global premature deaths every year. Here, we assess the pollution and health futures in five 2015-2100 scenarios using an integrated modelling framework. On the basis of a global Earth System Model (GFDL-ESM4.1), we find lower ambient PM2.5 concentrations, both globally and regionally, in future scenarios that are less fossil fuel-dependent and with more stringent pollution controls. Across the five scenarios, the global cumulative PM2.5-related deaths vary by a factor of two. However, the projected deaths are not necessarily lower in scenarios with less warming or cleaner air. This is because while reducing PM2.5 pollution lowers the exposure level, increasing the size of vulnerable populations can significantly increase PM2.5-related deaths. For most countries, we find that changes in socio-demographic factors (for example, ageing and declining baseline mortality rates) play a more important role than the exposure level in shaping future health burden.