The expected economic impact of selected exotic diseases on the pig industry of Australia
The expected economic impact of selected exotic diseases on the pig industry of Australia
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DOI：
10.20506/rst.20.3.1303
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发表时间：
2001-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Phillips, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Garner, MG;Whan, IF;Phillips, D
作者评估了三种外来疾病对澳大利亚养猪业的预期经济影响。采用流行病学/经济学综合方法评估了猪瘟、尼帕病毒和猪繁殖与呼吸综合征的影响。研究了涉及流行病事件或地方病情况的设想，在流行病事件中，疾病的爆发局限于选定的地区并被根除，在地方病情况中，疾病在澳大利亚确立。仅根据销售损失和处置成本计算，流行病造成的区域收入损失约为1，000万至3，000万澳元（16%-37%），具体取决于疾病和地区。如果这些疾病中的任何一种成为流行病，每年将发生5%-11%的国民养猪总收入的机会损失，其中经典猪瘟是三种疾病中最严重的。任何一种疾病的建立都将导致养猪业的快速结构性变化，并伴随着澳大利亚地区的社会和经济混乱。
The authors assess the expected economic impact of three exotic diseases on the pig industry of Australia. An integrated epidemiological/economic approach was used to assess the effects of classical swine fever, Nipah virus and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome. Scenarios involving either an epidemic event, in which the outbreaks were confined to selected regions and were eradicated, or an endemic situation, in which the diseases became established in Australia, were studied. Based only on loss of sales and disposal costs, epidemics resulted in regional losses in income of the order of AUS$10 million-AUS$30 million (16%-37%) depending on disease and region. If any of these diseases became established, opportunity losses in gross national pig income of 5%-11% per year would occur, with classical swine fever the most serious of the three diseases. Establishment of any of the diseases would lead to rapid structural change in the pig industry, with concomitant social and economic dislocation in regional Australia.