Response of runoff in the headwater region of the Yellow River to climate change and its sensitivity analysis
Response of runoff in the headwater region of the Yellow River to climate change and its sensitivity analysis
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DOI：
10.1007/s11442-010-0815-4
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发表时间：
2010-10
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Y. Lan;Guohui Zhao;Yaonan Zhang;J. Wen;Xinglin Hu;Jinqing Liu;Mingling Gu;Jun-Ming Chang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Lan;Guohui Zhao;Yaonan Zhang;J. Wen;Xinglin Hu;Jinqing Liu;Mingling Gu;Jun-Ming Chang
利用1959-2008年黄河源区4个水文站和10个气象站的实测资料，分析了黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及其敏感性。结果表明，该地区气温变化与全球变暖有明显的对应关系，近50年来，该地区各亚区年平均气温变化呈现波动上升的态势。然而，由于各地区地理位置和环境的不同，降水量的变化比气温的变化更为复杂，主要产流区年降水量的变化在近50年来呈现出波动减少的状态。径流与降水、气温之间存在显著的非线性相关关系。1990年以来，由于主要产流区降水量明显减少，年平均气温持续升高，流域径流量持续减少。总体上看，黄河源区各子区径流对降水变化都比较敏感，而济麦以上子区径流对气温变化的敏感性要高于其他子区。
Response of the runoff in the headwater region of the Yellow River to climate change and its sensibility are analyzed based on the measured data at the four hydrological stations and ten weather stations during the period 1959–2008. The result indicates that change of temperature in the region has an obvious corresponding relationship with global warming and the changes of annual average temperature in each subregion in the region have been presenting a fluctuant and rising state in the past 50 years. However the change of precipitation is more intricate than the change of temperature in the region because of the influences of the different geographical positions and environments in various areas, and the change of annual precipitation in the main runoff-producing area has been presenting a fluctuant and decreasing state in the past 50 years. And there is a remarkable nonlinear correlativity between runoff and precipitation and temperature in the region. The runoff in the region has been decreasing continuously since 1990 because the precipitation in the main runoff-producing area obviously decreases and the annual average temperature continuously rises. As a whole, the runoff in each subregion of the headwater region of the Yellow River is quite sensitive to precipitation change, while the runoff in the subregion above Jimai is more sensitive to temperature change than that in the others in the region, correspondingly.