Drivers of peak warming in a consumption-maximizing world
Drivers of peak warming in a consumption-maximizing world
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2977
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发表时间：
2016-07-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Allen, Myles R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Allen, Myles R.
人类引起的变暖峰值主要由累积的二氧化碳排放量决定，直到它们减少到零（1-3）。在一个理想化的经济最佳情景中（4，5），变暖会持续到碳的社会成本（由于在一个繁荣的世界中更愿意为避免气候变化而支付费用）超过零排放时的边际减排成本（即防止或重新捕获最后一吨二氧化碳净排放的成本）为止，碳的社会成本随着温度和消费的增加而增加。在这里，我表明，在这些条件下，峰值变暖主要是由两个直接受近期政策影响的量决定的：当气温接近峰值时，可用的“支持”缓解措施的成本（排放量降至零时每吨成本减少不增加的）;以及从现在到气候变暖达到峰值时的平均碳强度增长（平均排放量与平均经济增长率之比）。在低峰值变暖水平下，支持成本尤其重要。这凸显了在碳约束的世界中保持经济增长的重要性，并在任何雄心勃勃的消费最大化战略中降低大规模二氧化碳清除等支持措施的成本，以限制峰值变暖。
Peak human-induced warming is primarily determined by cumulative CO2 emissions up to the time they are reduced to zero(1-3). In an idealized economically optimal scenario(4,5), warming continues until the social cost of carbon, which increases with both temperature and consumption because of greater willingness to pay for climate change avoidance in a prosperous world, exceeds the marginal cost of abatement at zero emissions, which is the cost of preventing, or recapturing, the last net tonne of CO2 emissions. Here I show that, under these conditions, peak warming is primarily determined by two quantities that are directly affected by near-term policy: the cost of 'backstop' mitigation measures available as temperatures approach their peak (those whose cost per tonne abated does not increase as emissions fall to zero); and the average carbon intensity of growth (the ratio between average emissions and the average rate of economic growth) between now and the time of peak warming. Backstop costs are particularly important at low peak warming levels. This highlights the importance of maintaining economic growth in a carbon-constrained world and reducing the cost of backstop measures, such as large-scale CO2 removal, in any ambitious consumption-maximizing strategy to limit peak warming.