The association between international and domestic air traffic and the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
The association between international and domestic air traffic and the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmii.2020.03.026
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Khosrawipour, Tanja
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lau, Hien;Khosrawipour, Veria;Khosrawipour, Tanja
背景：世界卫生组织（WHO）已宣布目前爆发的新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）为全球大流行。许多国家正面临越来越多的COVID-19病例，这些病例的起源主要归因于与中国的定期国际航班。本研究旨在通过分析航空交通量和COVID-19病例传播的现有数据来调查这种关系。方法：和发现：我们分析了当前国内和国际旅客量和航线的现有数据，并将其与国内和国际COVID-19病例的分布进行了比较。结果：我们的数据表明，国内COVID-19病例与中国各地区的客运量之间存在很强的线性相关性（r（2）= 0.92，p = 0.19）以及国际COVID-19病例与旅客量之间的显著相关性（r（2）= 0.98，p < 0.01）。航线数量以及总旅客量是当前COVID-19传播的高度相关风险因素。亚洲的多个地区以及北美和欧洲的一些地区面临着持续暴露于来自中国和其他高感染国家的COVID-19的严重风险。南美洲和非洲的COVID-19风险仍然相对较低。如果采取适当措施，包括现场疾病检测和临时旅客检疫，有限但不终止空中交通可能是防止长期危机的可行选择。在减少国际航班时，必须考虑对每一旅客量进行合理的风险计算和个案评估。版权所有（C）2020，台湾微生物学会。由爱思唯尔台湾有限公司出版。
Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the current outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a global pandemic. Many countries are facing increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases, which are, in their origin mostly attributed to regular international flight connections with China. This study aims to investigate this relation by analyzing available data on air traffic volume and the spread of COVID-19 cases.Methods: and findings: We analyzed available data on current domestic and international passenger volume and flight routes and compared these to the distribution of domestic and international COVID-19 cases.Results: Our data indicate a strong linear correlation between domestic COVID-19 cases and passenger volume for regions within China (r(2) = 0.92, p = 0.19) and a significant correlation between international COVID-19 cases and passenger volume (r(2) = 0.98, p < 0.01).Conclusions: The number of flight routes as well as total passenger volume are highly relevant risk factors for the spread of current COVID-19. Multiple regions within Asia, as well as some in North America and Europe are at serious risk of constant exposure to COVID-19 from China and other highly infected countries. Risk for COVID-19 exposure remains relatively low in South America and Africa. If adequate measures are taken, including on-site disease detection and temporary passenger quarantine, limited but not terminated air traffic can be a feasible option to prevent a long-term crisis. Reasonable risk calculations and case evaluations per passenger volume are crucial aspects which must be considered when reducing international flights. Copyright (C) 2020, Taiwan Society of Microbiology. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC.