The effects of annual precipitation and mean air temperature on annual runoff in global forest regions
The effects of annual precipitation and mean air temperature on annual runoff in global forest regions
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-011-0197-3
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发表时间：
2011-08
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Jaeil Cho;H. Komatsu;Y. Pokhrel;P. Yeh;T. Oki;S. Kanae
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jaeil Cho;H. Komatsu;Y. Pokhrel;P. Yeh;T. Oki;S. Kanae
在变暖的大气下，径流和水平衡的变化趋势是最近气候和水文研究的一个重要课题。森林盆地代表了最复杂的系统，包括关键的水文过程。在本研究中，我们利用全球829个（森林）站点年的观测数据，研究了年总径流量(Q)、降水量(P)和平均温度(T)之间的关系。结果表明，年际pandqi之间的强线性关系是mean的函数。通过对观测到的年qandpwitht进行经验扰动，得到了不同mean的一组ofΔQ-zero线。为了评估每年pandtalterq的未来变化程度，将五个耦合的大气-海洋环流模式（aogcm）的未来预估ofΔPandΔTunder变暖情景（A1B）与本研究得出的empiricalΔQ-zero线进行了比较。研究发现，5种aogcm在theΔQ-zero线上的分布不同，这可能是由于各影响因子对不同模型间水分平衡分配的优势敏感性差异所致。本实证研究成果有助于预测气候变化下的水资源变化，并有助于解释AOGCM未来预测中的水文模拟。
Changing trends in runoff and water balance under a warming atmosphere are a major subject of interest in recent climatic and hydrological research. Forest basins represent the most complex systems including critical hydrological processes. In this study, we investigate the relationship between annual total runoff (Q), precipitation (P), and mean temperature (T) using observed data collected from 829 (forest) site years around the world. It is shown that the strong linear relationship between annualPandQis a function of meanT. By empirically perturbing observed annualQandPwithT, a set ofΔQ-zero lines are derived for different meanT. To evaluate the extent to which the future changes in annualPandTalterQ, the future projections ofΔPandΔTunder a warming scenario (A1B) from five coupled AOGCMs (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models) are compared with the empiricalΔQ-zero lines derived in this study. It is found that five AOGCMs show different distributions with respect to theΔQ-zero lines, which can be attributed to the contrasting dominant sensitivities of various influencing factors to water balance partitioning among models. The knowledge gained in this empirical study is helpful to predict water resources changes under changing climate as well as to interpret hydrologic simulations in AOGCM future projections.