Identifying marginal supplying countries of wood products via trade network analysis
Identifying marginal supplying countries of wood products via trade network analysis
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DOI：
10.1007/s11367-016-1222-6
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发表时间：
2017-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Massimo Pizzol;M. Scotti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Massimo Pizzol;M. Scotti
目的生命周期评估的相应库存建模方法意味着，特定产品的需求增加是由市场中的边际供应商满足的。然而，由于难以确定适当的地域市场划界，确定边际供应商的工作变得复杂。在这项研究中，提出了一种先进的系统思维方法来解决木材产品边际供应国识别的挑战。方法利用基于网络分析的聚类技术从贸易数据中识别代表地理市场的国家组。在这些市场中，边际供应国是根据积极的历史增量选择的。这项分析使用1998-2013年期间的贸易数据，涵盖了世界上12种不同的产品和所有国家。结果和讨论全球指数允许区分特定产品的贸易网络如何划分为社区，以及这些网络的相互连接程度。产品之间的差异很大，贸易年度之间的差异很小。为每种产品确定的社区往往与现有的地理区域重叠，因此看起来很现实。通过将这些信息与特定产品的产量增量排名相结合，确定了木制品的边际供应国。结论确定的地理市场界定是在木材建筑和生物质能源生产等领域进行适当的后续生命周期评估(LCA)库存建模的关键。原则上，该方法可适用于任何有贸易网络数据的产品，理想情况下，应辅之以对所确定的供应国内的技术限制的详细分析。
PurposeThe consequential inventory modeling approach for life cycle assessment implies that an increase in the demand for a specific product is met by the marginal suppliers within the market. The identification of marginal suppliers is however complicated by difficulties in defining appropriate geographical market delimitations. In this study, an advanced system thinking approach is proposed to address this challenge in the identification of marginal supplying countries of wood products.MethodsGroups of countries which represent geographical markets are identified from trade data by using a network analysis-based clustering technique. Within these markets, marginal supplying countries are selected based on positive historical increments. The analysis covers 12 different products and all countries in the world using trade data for the period 1998–2013.Results and discussionGlobal indices allow differentiating how product-specific trade networks are separated into communities and how interconnected these networks are. Large differences between products and minor differences between trade years are observed. Communities identified for each product tend to overlap with existing geographical regions and seem thus realistic. By combining this information with product-specific production increment rankings, marginal supplying countries of wood products were identified.ConclusionsThe identified geographical market delimitation is a key for proper consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) inventory modeling in areas such as timber-based construction and biomass-based energy production. The method can in principle be applied to any product for which trade network data are available and ideally should be accompanied by a detailed analysis of technological constrains within the identified supplying country.