Predicting the response of three common subtropical tree species in China to climate change
Predicting the response of three common subtropical tree species in China to climate change
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DOI：
10.3389/ffgc.2023.1299120
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发表时间：
2023-11
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Songheng Jin;Yi Chi;Xueqin Li;Pengzhou Shu;Mengxun Zhu;Zheng Yuan;Yang Liu;Wenjing Chen;Yini Han
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Songheng Jin;Yi Chi;Xueqin Li;Pengzhou Shu;Mengxun Zhu;Zheng Yuan;Yang Liu;Wenjing Chen;Yini Han
气候是影响物种分布的关键因素，随着全球气候变化，物种的潜在地理分布也会发生变化。本研究选取具有重要生态价值的3种亚热带树种（杉木、黄山松、青栎）作为研究对象，基于37个环境因子，应用最大熵（MaxEnt）预测其在当前和未来不同气候情景下的潜在分布。对影响物种分布的关键因素采用刀切法检验。此外，我们还探讨了影响其分布的关键环境变量，揭示了未来气候下这些树种的进化模式和迁移趋势。主要发现如下：（1）确定冬季气温、冬季降水和年温差为影响这三个树种潜在地理分布的关键环境变量；此外，与降水相关的因素比与温度相关的因素的影响更大； （2）目前这三种树种的适宜生境主要分布在中国亚热带地区，从南向北适宜性递减； (3) 在未来的气候条件下，披针叶杉的潜在适宜栖息地面积继续扩大，而台湾松和青冈栎的潜在适宜栖息地面积则因温室气体排放量的增加而趋于减少； （4）未来气候变化下，披针叶栎的适宜生境重心北移，台湾松和青冈栎的适宜生境重心南移，适宜生境面积缩小。我们的预测凸显了青冈栎在气候变化下生境丧失的高风险，为中国当前和未来气候变化情景下这三种常用造林树种的管理和保护提供了参考。
Climate is crucial factor influencing species distribution, and with global climate change, the potential geographic distribution of species will also alter. In this study, three subtropical tree species (Cunninghamia lanceolata, Pinus taiwanensis, and Quercus glauca) of great ecological values were selected as research objects.We applied a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) to predict their potential distributions under different climate scenarios in both present and future conditions based on 37 environmental factors. Jackknife test was used in key factors affecting species distribution. In addition, we explored the key environmental variables that affect their distributions and revealed the evolutionary patterns and migration trends of these tree species under future climate.The main findings are as follows: (1) Winter temperature, winter precipitation, and annual temperature range are identified as the key environmental variables affecting the potential geographic distribution of the three tree species; moreover, precipitation-related factors have a greater impact than temperature-related factors; (2) Currently suitable habitats for these three tree species are primarily located in subtropical China with decreasing suitability from south to north; (3) Under future climate conditions, the area of potentially suitable habitat for C. lanceolata continues to expand, while P. taiwanensis and Q. glauca tend to experience a reduction due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time; and (4) The centroid of suitable habitat for C. lanceolata shifts northward under future climate change, while the centroid of P. taiwanensis and Q. glauca move southward along with shrinking suitable habitat area.Our predictions highlight a high risk of habitat loss of Q. glauca under climate change, recommending management and conservation references for these three commonly used afforestation species under current and future climate change scenarios in China.