Multiple Epidemic Wave Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Modeling Study
Multiple Epidemic Wave Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Modeling Study
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DOI：
10.2196/20912
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发表时间：
2020-07-30
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Neofotistos, Georgios
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kaxiras, Efthimios;Neofotistos, Georgios
背景：世界各地已实施干预措施，以减轻冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行的传播。了解疾病传播的动态和干预措施的有效性对于预测其未来演变至关重要。目的：本研究的目的是模拟不同的社会距离干预措施的效果，并调查其时机和严格程度是否会导致多次波（亚流行），这可以更好地符合大多数国家感染人口曲线中观察到的波状行为。方法：我们设计并运行了基于代理的模拟和多波模型，以拟合许多国家的感染人口数据。我们还制定了一项新的大流行应对指数，以一种定量和客观的方式，根据各国应对COVID-19的表现对其进行排名。结果：基于多波（亚流行）假说，我们分析了来自18个国家的数据，并给出了相关参数。多个波被识别出来，并被发现能更好地描述数据。干预措施的有效性可以通过波浪的峰值强度来推断。实施快速和严格干预措施的国家出现了多波高峰强度下降的情况。这一结果与基于智能体的模拟结果强烈吻合。我们还提供了一个估计，如果在第一波传播时采取早期和严格的干预措施来阻止传播，感染人数可能会减少多少，就像少数国家实际发生的那样。构建了一个新的指数，即大流行应对指数，并根据模型的结果为每个国家分配了一个指数值，以客观的方式量化该国对大流行的应对。结论：我们的研究结果支持这样的假设，即COVID-19大流行可以成功地建模为一系列流行波（亚流行），并且可以推断出实施早期干预措施可以在多大程度上减缓疾病的传播。
Background: Intervention measures have been implemented around the world to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Understanding the dynamics of the disease spread and the effectiveness of the interventions is essential in predicting its future evolution.Objective: The aim of this study is to simulate the effect of different social distancing interventions and investigate whether their timing and stringency can lead to multiple waves (subepidemics), which can provide a better fit to the wavy behavior observed in the infected population curve in the majority of countries.Methods: We have designed and run agent-based simulations and a multiple wave model to fit the infected population data for many countries. We have also developed a novel Pandemic Response Index to provide a quantitative and objective way of ranking countries according to their COVID-19 response performance.Results: We have analyzed data from 18 countries based on the multiple wave (subepidemics) hypothesis and present the relevant parameters. Multiple waves have been identified and were found to describe the data better. The effectiveness of intervention measures can be inferred by the peak intensities of the waves. Countries imposing fast and stringent interventions exhibit multiple waves with declining peak intensities. This result strongly corroborated with agent-based simulations outcomes. We also provided an estimate of how much lower the number of infections could have been if early and strict intervention measures had been taken to stop the spread at the first wave, as actually happened for a handful of countries. A novel index, the Pandemic Response Index, was constructed, and based on the model's results, an index value was assigned to each country, quantifying in an objective manner the country's response to the pandemic.Conclusions: Our results support the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic can be successfully modeled as a series of epidemic waves (subepidemics) and that it is possible to infer to what extent the imposition of early intervention measures can slow the spread of the disease.