Knowledge, uncertainty and physical geography: towards the development of methodologies for questioning belief
Knowledge, uncertainty and physical geography: towards the development of methodologies for questioning belief
复制标题
知识、不确定性和自然地理学：发展质疑信仰的方法
DOI：
10.1111/j.0020-2754.2004.00342.x
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发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
12.1
通讯作者：
James D. Brown
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
James D. Brown
尽管人们普遍认为，我们对环境系统的理解不能归结为单一的预测和独特的解释，决定论仍然是自然地理学中的一种常见策略。本文认为，明确评估环境数据和模型的不确定性作为一个必要的，但不是一个充分的条件，平衡不确定的科学论点对不确定的社会，伦理，道德和法律的参数在管理环境系统。特别是，本文旨在：（1）证明在现实主义研究框架内评估不确定性的重要性;（2）考虑科学不确定性的性质，作为发展质疑信念的方法的基础;（3）探索环境研究中评估不确定性的方法的一些重要方面。
Although it is widely acknowledged that our understanding of environmental systems cannot be reduced to single predictions and unique explanations, determinism remains a common strategy in physical geography. This paper argues for explicit assessments of uncertainty in environmental data and models as a necessary, although not a sufficient, condition for balancing uncertain scientific arguments against uncertain social, ethical, moral and legal arguments in managing environmental systems. In particular, this paper aims to: (1) demonstrate the importance of assessing uncertainty within a realist research framework; (2) consider the nature of scientific uncertainty as the basis for developing methodologies that question belief; and (3) explore some important aspects of a methodology for evaluating uncertainties in environmental research.