Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012.
Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012.
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DOI：
10.1002/2014gl060962
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发表时间：
2014-08-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Vidale, Pier-Luigi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Allan, Richard P.;Liu, Chunlei;Loeb, Norman G.;Palmer, Matthew D.;Roberts, Malcolm;Smith, Doug;Vidale, Pier-Luigi
结合卫星数据、大气再分析和气候模式模拟，重建了地球大气层顶部净向下辐射通量不平衡的变率，并将其与最近的气候变化联系起来。尽管自2000年以来地表温度上升速度较慢，但1985-1999年期间的平均N值（0.34±0.67 Wm−2）低于2000 - 2012年期间（0.62±0.43 Wm−2，不确定性在90%置信水平）。虽然N的精确大小仍然不确定，但重建捕获了由1991年皮纳图博火山喷发和厄尔Niño南方涛动主导的年际变化。在1985-2012年期间，由使用规定的海面温度和辐射强迫的9个气候模式模拟和基于卫星的重建所产生的N的逐月非季节性年际变率具有显著相关（r ~ 0.6）。
Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses, and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere (N) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985–1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 Wm−2) is lower than for the 2000–2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm−2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble of nine climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite-based reconstruction is significantly correlated (r∼0.6) over the 1985–2012 period.