An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India
An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-013-0698-3
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发表时间：
2013-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
N. K. Soora;P. Aggarwal;P. Aggarwal;R. Saxena;S. Rani;Surabhi Jain;N. Chauhan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. K. Soora;P. Aggarwal;P. Aggarwal;R. Saxena;S. Rani;Surabhi Jain;N. Chauhan
利用信息作物-水稻模型进行了模拟分析，以量化影响和适应收益，并确定印度未来气候条件下灌溉和雨养水稻种植的脆弱地区。研究考虑了全球气候模式（MIROC3.2.HI）和区域气候模式（PRECIS）在A1b、A2、B1和B2排放情景下的气候。在总体尺度上，所有排放情景的平均值表明，气候变化可能导致2020年（2010-2039年）、2050年（2040-2069年）和2080年（2070-2099年）的灌溉水稻产量分别减少约4%、7%和10%。另一方面，在2020年的情景中，印度的雨养水稻产量可能会减少6%，但在2050年和2080年的情景中，它们预计只会略微下降（< 2.5%）。然而，影响的程度存在空间差异，一些区域可能比其他区域受影响更大。包括农艺管理在内的适应战略可以在不久的将来抵消负面影响——特别是在雨养条件下——但从长远来看，开发合适的品种以及改进和高效的作物管理将变得至关重要。对于灌溉水稻作物，基因型和农艺改良将变得至关重要；而对于雨养条件，则需要改进管理和增加肥料。基本上，气候变化可能对水稻作物表现出三种类型的影响：i)受气候变化不利影响的地区通过适应可以获得净生产力；Ii)受不利影响的地区尽管在适应方面取得了进展，但仍将保持脆弱；iii)可能因降雨增加而获益的雨养区（目前降雨量低）可通过适应进一步受益。即使在提出了适应气候变化的建议之后，仍属于脆弱类别的地区将需要更密集、具体和创新的适应方案。目前的分析表明，通过有效利用投入和采用改良品种，有可能大幅度提高产量。
A simulation analysis was carried out using the InfoCrop-rice model to quantify impacts and adaptation gains, as well as to identify vulnerable regions for irrigated and rain fed rice cultivation in future climates in India. Climates in A1b, A2, B1 and B2 emission scenarios as per a global climate model (MIROC3.2.HI) and a regional climate model (PRECIS) were considered for the study. On an aggregated scale, the mean of all emission scenarios indicate that climate change is likely to reduce irrigated rice yields by ~4 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ~7 % in 2050 (2040–2069), and by ~10 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios. On the other hand, rainfed rice yields in India are likely to be reduced by ~6 % in the 2020 scenario, but in the 2050 and 2080 scenarios they are projected to decrease only marginally (<2.5 %). However, spatial variations exist for the magnitude of the impact, with some regions likely to be affected more than others. Adaptation strategies comprising agronomical management can offset negative impacts in the near future—particularly in rainfed conditions—but in the longer run, developing suitable varieties coupled with improved and efficient crop husbandry will become essential. For irrigated rice crop, genotypic and agronomic improvements will become crucial; while for rainfed conditions, improved management and additional fertilizers will be needed. Basically climate change is likely to exhibit three types of impacts on rice crop: i) regions that are adversely affected by climate change can gain in net productivity with adaptation; ii) regions that are adversely affected will still remain vulnerable despite adaptation gains; and iii) rainfed regions (with currently low rainfall) that are likely to gain due to increase in rainfall can further benefit by adaptation. Regions falling in the vulnerable category even after suggested adaptation to climate change will require more intensive, specific and innovative adaptation options. The present analysis indicates the possibility of substantial improvement in yields with efficient utilization of inputs and adoption of improved varieties.