An empirical link between the spectral colour of climate and the spectral colour of field populations in the context of climate change
An empirical link between the spectral colour of climate and the spectral colour of field populations in the context of climate change
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2656.2011.01833.x
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发表时间：
2011-09-01
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Reuman, Daniel C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Garcia-Carreras, Bernardo;Reuman, Daniel C.
1. 种群动态的光谱颜色及其成因引起了人们的广泛关注。时间序列的光谱颜色可以从它的功率谱中确定，功率谱显示了时间序列中出现在每个频率上的总方差的比例。具有红色光谱（负谱指数）的时间序列以低频振荡为主，具有蓝色光谱（正谱指数）的时间序列以高频振荡为主。气候变量和种群时间序列都以红色光谱为特征，这表明种群的环境可能对其光谱颜色负有部分责任。实验室实验和模型被用来研究这种潜在的联系。然而，没有一项使用实地数据的研究直接测试了在更红的环境中种群是否更红。本研究使用全球人口动态数据库和气候数据来检验这种影响。夏季平均气温的谱指数与种群谱指数呈显著正相关。我们还发现，在上个世纪，大多数大陆上的温度气候变量变蓝了。虽然种群时间序列不够长或不够丰富，无法直接判断它们的光谱颜色是否在变化，但我们的两个结果综合起来表明，种群的光谱颜色可能受到气候变量光谱颜色变化的影响。种群光谱颜色与灭绝有关；我们讨论了我们的结果对灭绝概率的潜在影响。
1. The spectral colour of population dynamics and its causes have attracted much interest. The spectral colour of a time series can be determined from its power spectrum, which shows what proportion of the total variance in the time series occurs at each frequency. A time series with a red spectrum (a negative spectral exponent) is dominated by low-frequency oscillations, and a time series with a blue spectrum (a positive spectral exponent) is dominated by high-frequency oscillations.2. Both climate variables and population time series are characterised by red spectra, suggesting that a population's environment might be partly responsible for its spectral colour. Laboratory experiments and models have been used to investigate this potential link. However, no study using field data has directly tested whether populations in redder environments are redder.3. This study uses the Global Population Dynamics Database together with climate data to test for this effect. We found that the spectral exponent of mean summer temperatures correlates positively and significantly with population spectral exponent.4. We also found that over the last century, temperature climate variables on most continents have become bluer.5. Although population time series are not long or abundant enough to judge directly whether their spectral colours are changing, our two results taken together suggest that population spectral colour may be affected by the changing spectral colour of climate variables. Population spectral colour has been linked to extinction; we discuss the potential implications of our results for extinction probability.