Distinguishing the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenically Forced Decadal Climate Variability Implications for Prediction
Distinguishing the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenically Forced Decadal Climate Variability Implications for Prediction
复制标题
区分自然和人为强迫的十年间气候变化对预测的影响
DOI：
10.1175/2010bams2962.1
复制
发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Solomon A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Solomon A
鉴于在未来10-30年的过程中，自然年代际变化的幅度可能与区域尺度上人为强迫的气候变化的幅度相媲美，预计初始年代际预测将为气候相关管理和适应决策提供重要信息。此类预测目前是气候界面临的重大挑战之一。这需要识别那些可以在十年时间尺度上提供额外可预测性的物理现象及其模型等效物，包括对人为强迫可能与自然变化相互作用或投射的物理过程进行评估。这样的物理框架对于为十年期预测实验提供一致的评估（以及对潜在改进的洞察）是必要的，这些实验计划作为 IPCC 第五次评估报告的一部分进行评估。
Given that over the course of the next 10–30 years the magnitude of natural decadal variations may rival that of anthropogenically forced climate change on regional scales, it is envisioned that initialized decadal predictions will provide important information for climate-related management and adaptation decisions. Such predictions are presently one of the grand challenges for the climate community. This requires identifying those physical phenomena—and their model equivalents—that may provide additional predictability on decadal time scales, including an assessment of the physical processes through which anthropogenic forcing may interact with or project upon natural variability. Such a physical framework is necessary to provide a consistent assessment (and insight into potential improvement) of the decadal prediction experiments planned to be assessed as part of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report.