The duration and magnitude of influenza epidemics: A study of surveillance data from sentinel general practices in England, Wales and the Netherlands
The duration and magnitude of influenza epidemics: A study of surveillance data from sentinel general practices in England, Wales and the Netherlands
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DOI：
10.1023/a:1007525402861
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发表时间：
1999-05-01
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
de Jong, JC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fleming, DM;Zambon, M;de Jong, JC
每周流感样疾病的发病率数据，常规收集的哨兵一般做法在英格兰和威尔士和荷兰超过10个冬季期间（第37周，在一年中的第20周，1987/1988-1996/1997）进行了检查，结合匹配的病毒分离数据，以确定流感在这两个国家的流行期。我们首先定义了记录流感样疾病的背景率，这些疾病发生在只有零星病毒分离或没有病毒分离报告的时候。两个网络的背景率相似，英格兰和威尔士的平均每周发病率为28.1/100，000（所有年龄），荷兰为29.8。流行期被定义为高于背景率的95%置信水平上限，平均持续约10周。一旦发现流行病，通常在4周内达到发病高峰。在流感流行期间咨询全科医生的超额人口（所有年龄）是根据观察到的发病率和背景发病率之间的差异计算的，并表示为总人口的百分比。在调查的10个时期中，英格兰和威尔士咨询和诊断为流感样疾病的人口百分比从1991/1992年的0.4%到1989/1990年的1.7%不等，荷兰从1990/1991年的0.5%到1989/1990年的2.1%不等。这两个国家的持续时间和流行时期大致相似，尽管在研究的10次流行病期间，英格兰和威尔士的咨询人口平均过剩0.85%，而荷兰为1.39%。尽管主要病毒（亚型）类型相似，但在咨询人群中测量的流感对个别年份的影响在两国之间存在显著差异。
Weekly incidence data for influenza-like illness, routinely collected in sentinel general practices in England and Wales and in the Netherlands over 10 winter periods (week 37 in one year to week 20 in the next, 1987/1988-1996/1997) were examined in conjunction with matching virus isolate data to define epidemic periods of influenza in the two countries. We first defined the background rates of recording influenza-like illness which occurred at times when only sporadic or no isolations of virus were reported. The background rates were similar in the two networks with mean weekly incidence in England and Wales of 28.1 per 100,000 (all ages) and in the Netherlands 29.8. Epidemic periods defined as lying above the upper 95% confidence level of the background rate lasted on an average of about 10 weeks. Once epidemics were recognised, peak incidence was generally achieved within 4 weeks. The excess population (all ages) consulting general practitioners during influenza epidemic periods was calculated from the difference between the observed and background incidence rates, and expressed as a percentage of the total population. In the 10 periods surveyed, the percentage of the population consulting and diagnosed with influenza-like illness in England and Wales ranged from 0.4% in 1991/1992 to 1.7% in 1989/1990 and in the Netherlands from 0.5% in 1990/1991 to 2.1% in 1989/1990. The duration and epidemic periods were broadly similar in the two countries though the excess consulting population during the 10 epidemics studied averaged 0.85% in England and Wales compared with 1.39% in the Netherlands. There were substantial differences between the two countries in the impact of influenza in individual years, as measured in the consulting population even though the predominant virus (sub)types were similar.