Will a growth miracle reduce debt in Japan? (特集 Macroeconomic Modeling)
Will a growth miracle reduce debt in Japan? (特集 Macroeconomic Modeling)
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增长奇迹会减少日本的债务吗？（宏观经济模型专题）
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Nao Sudo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Selahattin Imrohoroglu;Nao Sudo
日本是发达国家中债务占GDP比例最高的国家。此外，预计今后几十年人口将迅速老龄化，这将大大增加政府支出占国内生产总值的比例。本文探讨了在未来社会保障支出增加的情况下，全要素生产率驱动的经济增长对日本债务的影响。我们的主要发现是，日本要想消除债务，全要素生产率需要以年均6%的速度实现前所未有的高速增长。由于这是非常不现实的，因此需要大幅削减政府支出，同时提高消费税，用40年时间消除债务。
Japan has the highest debt to GDP ratio among the developed nations. In addition, the population is projected to age rapidly over the next few decades, which will significantly increase the ratio of government expenditures to GDP. In this paper, we explore the effect of economic growth driven by total factor productivity on Japanese debt in the face of higher future social security expenditures. Our main finding is that a decade of unprecedentedly fast growth of total factor productivity, at an average of 6% per year, is needed in order for Japan to eliminate its debt. Since this is very unrealistic, what is needed is a significant reduction in government expenditures together with an increase in the consumption tax rate, to eliminate debt in forty years.
“日本的可持续性、债务管理和公共债务政策”
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia 16
影响因子：
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作者：
國広敏文;他;斉藤嘉臣;田尾雅夫;伊多波良雄;土居丈朗;Hiroko Kudo;工藤裕子;土居 丈朗;持田信樹;井堀利宏;山本清;井堀 利宏
通讯作者：
井堀 利宏