Preliminary Research on the Inner-Atmosphere-Originated Seasonal Climate Predictability
Preliminary Research on the Inner-Atmosphere-Originated Seasonal Climate Predictability
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发表时间：
2005
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通讯作者：
Wang Hui
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作者：
Wang Hui
这是关于探测内部大气引起的季节性气候可预报性的非常初步的工作。一般来说，季节气候的可预报性主要取决于具有较大时间变化尺度的外力，即海表面温度、积雪、土壤湿度等。在分析月平均风异常的持续性和东亚季风相关的全球大气环流异常的基础上，讨论了内大气起源的季节气候可预报性。结果表明，与东亚季风密切相关的热带对流层上部、平流层下部等关键区域春季风异常可能持续4~5个月。因此，气候可预报性可能部分源于大气的内部过程。
This is a very preliminary work on detection of seasonal climate predictability arising from the internal atmosphere. Generally speaking, seasonal climate predictability is mostly determined by the external forcing that has larger scale of temporal variation, namely, the sea surface temperature, snow cover, soil wetness, and so on. Based on analyzing the persistence of monthly mean wind anomalies and the East Asian monsoon-related global-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, the inner-atmosphere-originated seasonal climate predictability is discussed. The results show that the wind anomalies in spring in many key regions like upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the tropics, which is closely related to the East Asian monsoon, may persist for up to 4 to 5 months. Thus, climate predictability may be partly originated by the internal processes of the atmosphere.