Trading-off tolerable risk with climate change adaptation costs in water supply systems
Trading-off tolerable risk with climate change adaptation costs in water supply systems
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DOI：
10.1002/2015wr018164
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发表时间：
2016-02-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Watson, Tim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Borgomeo, Edoardo;Mortazavi-Naeini, Mohammad;Watson, Tim
选择安全的水资源管理计划不可避免地需要在风险（对于各种利益相关者）、成本和其他影响之间进行权衡。我们之前曾认为，水资源规划应侧重于用水限制风险的衡量标准，同时进行广泛的模拟和基于情景的不确定性探索。然而，受风险约束的优化结果可能对可容忍风险的规范敏感，而不同的利益相关者可能无法准确或一致地定义可容忍风险。在本文中，我们将水资源规划问题重新定义为多目标优化问题，以确定满足一组可容忍风险标准的最低成本方案，其中可容忍风险是根据不同严重程度的用水限制的频率来定义的。我们提出的方法将非常大的气候模型预测集合与水资源系统模型和多目标优化算法联系起来，以确定 25 年规划期内的帕累托最优水资源管理计划集。在伦敦供水系统的案例研究应用中，我们确定了水资源管理计划，在给定的财务成本下，根据一个或多个概率标准最大化绩效。这说明了计划的财务成本和风险之间以及四种不同严重程度的用水限制的风险标准之间的权衡。帕累托集中替代投资序列的图形表示有助于确定水管理选项，有充分理由将其纳入计划中。
Choosing secure water resource management plans inevitably requires trade-offs between risks (for a variety of stakeholders), costs, and other impacts. We have previously argued that water resources planning should focus upon metrics of risk of water restrictions, accompanied by extensive simulation and scenario-based exploration of uncertainty. However, the results of optimization subject to risk constraints can be sensitive to the specification of tolerable risk, which may not be precisely or consistently defined by different stakeholders. In this paper, we recast the water resources planning problem as a multiobjective optimization problem to identify least cost schemes that satisfy a set of criteria for tolerable risk, where tolerable risk is defined in terms of the frequency of water use restrictions of different levels of severity. Our proposed method links a very large ensemble of climate model projections to a water resource system model and a multiobjective optimization algorithm to identify a Pareto optimal set of water resource management plans across a 25 years planning period. In a case study application to the London water supply system, we identify water resources management plans that, for a given financial cost, maximize performance with respect to one or more probabilistic criteria. This illustrates trade-offs between financial costs of plans and risk, and between risk criteria for four different severities of water use restrictions. Graphical representation of alternative sequences of investments in the Pareto set helps to identify water management options for which there is a robust case for including them in the plan.