Expected future changes in the African monsoon between 2030 and 2070 using some CMIP3 and CMIP5 models under a medium-low RCP scenario
Expected future changes in the African monsoon between 2030 and 2070 using some CMIP3 and CMIP5 models under a medium-low RCP scenario
复制标题
在中-低 RCP 情景下，利用 CMIP3 和 CMIP5 的一些模型预测 2030 至 2070 年非洲季风的未来变化
DOI：
10.1029/2012jd017510
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发表时间：
2012-08-25
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Roucou, Pascal
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Monerie, Paul-Arthur;Fontaine, Bernard;Roucou, Pascal
利用RCP4.5排放情景下8个CMIP5/AR5 aogcm和A1b情景下8个CMIP3/AR4 aogcm，采用多模式方法和“一模一票”的概念，介绍了非洲季风（AM）模拟的精度和预期的未来变化。结果涉及“现在”时期（1960-1999年）和“未来”时期（2031-2070年），并从季风动力学和气候变化的角度进行了讨论。总的来说，新的模拟看起来更加真实。它们显示出更准确的降雨模式，尽管在CMIP3模型中报告的一些偏差仍然存在。未来的变化在降雨量方面显示出相反的趋势，萨赫勒西部（中东部）预计降雨量少（多）。亏缺与不断增加的空气沉降有关，而盈余与更强烈的季风环流有关。非洲降雨模式指数（ARPI）是根据这些地区之间的标准化降雨差异定义的，用于捕捉1900年至2100年期间的降雨对比。该指数的增加表明，在萨赫勒纬度的对比降水异常模式预计将在未来更频繁地发生。
The accuracy of African Monsoon (AM) simulations together with expected future changes are presented using eight available CMIP5/AR5 AOGCMs under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and eight CMIP3/AR4 AOGCMs under the A1b scenario, with a multimodel approach and the "one model one vote" concept. The results refer to the 'present' period (1960-1999) and to a future horizon' (2031-2070), and are discussed in terms of monsoon dynamics and climate change. Overall the new simulations seem more realistic. They exhibit more accurate rainfall patterns, although some biases reported in CMIP3 models remain. The future changes show an inverse tendency regarding rainfall amounts with less (more) rainfall expected over the western (central-eastern) Sahel. The deficits are associated with increasing air subsidence and the surplus with a more intense monsoon circulation. An African Rainfall Pattern Index (ARPI), based on standardized rainfall differences between these regions, is defined for capturing the rainfall contrast over the period from 1900 to 2100. This index increases suggesting that the contrasted rainfall anomaly pattern at Sahelian latitudes is expected to occur more frequently in the future.