Variation of Drought and Flood Disasters and Its Driven Factors of Recent 50-year in Hubei Province
Variation of Drought and Flood Disasters and Its Driven Factors of Recent 50-year in Hubei Province
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发表时间：
2010
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通讯作者：
Liu Min
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作者：
Liu Min
根据湖北省71个气象站1960年至2007年的地面气象观测资料和旱涝受灾面积资料，在湖北省常用的单站指数的基础上，提出了湖北省旱涝指数。影响因素包括旱涝变化特征、受灾面积、受灾率(受灾面积占总种植面积之比)、受灾面积(受灾面积占受灾总面积之比)、受灾面积(受灾面积与受灾总面积之比)、受灾面积(受灾面积与受灾总面积之比)、受灾面积(受灾面积与受灾总面积之比)、受灾面积(受灾面积与受灾总面积之比)、受灾面积(受灾面积与受灾总面积之比)、受灾面积(受灾面积与受灾总面积之比)、受灾面积(受灾面积与受灾总面积之比)、受灾面积(受灾面积与受灾总面积之比)、受灾面积(受灾面积与受灾总面积之比)、受灾面积(受灾面积与受灾面积之比)、受灾面积与受灾面积之比、受灾面积与利用最小二乘法对湖北省旱涝气象灾害指数和水稻种植率进行了分析。结果表明，湖北省主汛期为6~8月，其中85%以上的中汛期和90%以上的重汛期发生，旱情可能一个月发生一次。由于湖北省最重要的农作季节是4~9月，这一时期的干旱对当地农业生产的影响最大。结论：湖北省每年都不同程度地发生旱涝气象灾害。近50年来，湖北省每3年发生一次严重洪涝灾害，每4年发生一次严重旱涝灾害。虽然旱涝指数的年趋势不明确，但受灾面积和受灾率的增加趋势明显。一方面，农业种植结构发生了变化，即水稻种植面积减少，而旱地面积相对增加。这一变化加剧了旱地作物的内涝程度，这是因为水稻具有良好的耐涝能力和蓄水能力。另一方面，由于水稻具有良好的耐涝能力和储水能力，这种变化加剧了旱地作物的内涝程度。另一方面，由于水稻具有良好的耐涝能力和蓄水能力，因此，湖北省农业种植结构发生了变化，即水稻种植面积减少，旱地面积相对增加。这种变化加剧了旱地作物的受涝程度。另一方面，由于水稻具有良好的耐涝能力和蓄水能力，这种变化加剧了旱地作物的受涝程度。另一方面，由于水稻具有良好的耐涝能力和储水能力，这种变化加剧了旱地作物的受涝程度。另一方面，由于水稻具有良好的耐涝能力和储水能力，农业种植结构发生了变化，即水稻种植面积减少，旱地面积相对增加农田水利设施老化，河道淤积。
According to the ground weather observation data from l960 to 2007 at 71 weather stations in Hubei Province and the drought and flood disaster-affected and disaster-suffering area data,the drought and flood index of Hubei Province was proposed based on single station index often used in Hubei Province.Factors such as the variation characters of drought and flood,the disaster-affected area,the disaster-affected rate(the ratio of the disaster-affected area to total planting area),the disaster-suffering rate(the ratio of the disaster-suffering area to total disaster-affected area),the meteorological disasters index of drought and flood and the rice planting percentage in Hubei Province were analyzed by using the least square method.The results showed that the main flood season of Hubei Province is from June to August,in which more than 85% of medium flood and more than 90% of serious flood ocurred,and that the drought may occur in once a month potentially.Because the most important farming season in Hubei Province is from April to September,the drought during this period has the greatest influence on the local agricultural production.In conclusion,the meteorological disasters of drought and flood in Hubei Province occur every year in different degree.The serious flood occurs one time every 3 years and the serious drought occurs one time every 4 years in recent 50 years.Though the annual trend of the drought and flood index is ambiguous,the increasing tendency of the disaster-affected area and the disaster-suffering rate is obvious.On one hand,the agricultural planting structure has changed,namely,the rice planting area decreased while the dry land area increased relatively.This change enhanced the waterlogging degree of dry land crops due to the rice having a good waterlogging tolerance and being able to store water.On the other hand,the farmland water conservancy facilities are aging and the riverway is being silted up.