Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection
Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection
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DOI：
10.1038/s43016-022-00573-0
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发表时间：
2022-08-15
期刊：
影响因子：
23.2
通讯作者：
Heneghan, Ryan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xia, Lili;Robock, Alan;Heneghan, Ryan
在区域或全球核战争后，估计每个国家的卡路里供应量和粮食短缺程度，包括对主要作物、牲畜和渔业生产的影响。核武器爆炸产生的大气烟尘负荷将破坏地球气候，限制陆地和水生食物生产。在这里，我们使用气候，作物和渔业模型来估计平流层烟尘注入的六种情况下产生的影响，预测储存的食物消耗后，每个国家战后的总食物热量。在量化影响远离目标地区，我们表明，烟尘注入大于5 Tg将导致大规模的粮食短缺，牲畜和水产食品生产将无法弥补作物产量减少，在几乎所有国家。减少食物浪费等适应措施对增加可用热量的影响有限。我们估计超过20亿人可能死于印度和巴基斯坦之间的核战争，超过50亿人可能死于美国和俄罗斯之间的战争，这突出了全球合作防止核战争的重要性。
Calorie availability and extent of food shortages for each nation are estimated following regional or global nuclear war, including impacts on major crops, livestock and fishery production.Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth's climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts arising from six scenarios of stratospheric soot injection, predicting the total food calories available in each nation post-war after stored food is consumed. In quantifying impacts away from target areas, we demonstrate that soot injections larger than 5 Tg would lead to mass food shortages, and livestock and aquatic food production would be unable to compensate for reduced crop output, in almost all countries. Adaptation measures such as food waste reduction would have limited impact on increasing available calories. We estimate more than 2 billion people could die from nuclear war between India and Pakistan, and more than 5 billion could die from a war between the United States and Russia-underlining the importance of global cooperation in preventing nuclear war.