Perspectives on present-day sea level change: a tribute to Christian le Provost
Perspectives on present-day sea level change: a tribute to Christian le Provost
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对当今海平面变化的看法：向克里斯蒂安·勒普罗沃斯特致敬
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Cabanes
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作者：
A. Lombard;A. Cazenave;P. L. Traon;S. Guinehut;C. Cabanes
在本文中，我们首先讨论了Cabanes等人（Science 294：840-842，2001）工作的有争议的结果，他们认为，过去世纪海平面上升的速度可能被高估了，考虑到历史验潮站的有限和异质性的位置和热膨胀的高区域变化，这应该是占主导地位的观测海平面。如果这一结论是正确的，它将解决IPCC第三次评估报告提出的问题[Church et al，剑桥University Press，剑桥，pp 881，2001]，即20世纪观测到的海平面上升和计算出的气候贡献之间的第二个因素差异。然而，最近根据新的海洋温度数据集进行的调查表明，热膨胀只能解释过去几十年中观测到的海平面上升1.8毫米/年的一部分（约0.4毫米/年）。事实上，Cabanes等人的结论是不正确的，因为在墨西哥湾流地区异常高的海洋温度数据的污染，导致高估了该地区的热膨胀。在本文中，我们还估计在过去十年（1993-2003年）的热膨胀，使用一个新的海洋温度和盐度数据库。我们比较我们的结果与其他三个估计，两个是基于全球网格数据集，和一个基于类似的方法，在这里开发的。结果表明，近10年来热释海平面上升的平均速率为1.5± 0.3mm/a，约为卫星测高3 mm/a的50%。对于过去几十年和过去十年的时间跨度，1.4 mm/年的贡献不能用热膨胀来解释，因此需要水团起源。对近年来陆地冰融化的直接估计说明海平面每年上升约1毫米。因此，至少在过去十年中，我们比IPCC第三次评估报告更接近于解释观测到的海平面上升速度。
In this paper, we first discuss the controversial result of the work by Cabanes et al. (Science 294:840–842, 2001), who suggested that the rate of past century sea level rise may have been overestimated, considering the limited and heterogeneous location of historical tide gauges and the high regional variability of thermal expansion which was supposed to dominate the observed sea level. If correct, this conclusion would have solved the problem raised by the IPCC third assessment report [Church et al, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 881, 2001], namely, the factor two difference between the 20th century observed sea level rise and the computed climatic contributions. However, recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part (about 0.4 mm/year) of the 1.8 mm/year observed sea level rise of the past few decades. In fact, the Cabanes et al.’s conclusion was incorrect due to a contamination of abnormally high ocean temperature data in the Gulf Stream area that led to an overestimate of thermal expansion in this region. In this paper, we also estimate thermal expansion over the last decade (1993–2003), using a new ocean temperature and salinity database. We compare our result with three other estimates, two being based on global gridded data sets, and one based on an approach similar to that developed here. It is found that the mean rate of thermosteric sea level rise over the past decade is 1.5±0.3 mm/year, i.e. 50% of the observed 3 mm/year by satellite altimetry. For both time spans, past few decades and last decade, a contribution of 1.4 mm/year is not explained by thermal expansion, thus needs to be of water mass origin. Direct estimates of land ice melt for the recent years account for about 1 mm/year sea level rise. Thus, at least for the last decade, we have moved closer to explaining the observed rate of sea level rise than the IPCC third assessment report.