Marine species in ambient low‐oxygen regions subject to double jeopardy impacts of climate change
Marine species in ambient low‐oxygen regions subject to double jeopardy impacts of climate change
复制标题
环境低氧的海洋物种区域受到气候变化的双重危险影响
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.13534
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
N. Shackell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Stortini;D. Chabot;N. Shackell
我们已经了解了变暖对海洋生物生产力和分布的影响，但对变暖与其他环境压力因素(包括氧气耗尽)的影响了解较少。此外，多种环境应激源的综合影响需要在与资源经理最相关的尺度上进行评估。我们以加拿大圣劳伦斯湾为例，该海湾的特点是一大片永久缺氧区。物种分布模型被用来预测变暖和氧气枯竭的多种情景对三个具有商业和生态重要性的物种的局部密度的影响。预计在20-40年内将发生重大变化。已经局限于浅水、富氧避难栖息地(大西洋鳕鱼)的泛热枯竭物种可能相对不受氧气枯竭的影响，但随着气候变暖，避难区内的密度会增加。在气候变暖和氧气耗尽的共同影响下，一种温度更低、生活在深处的物种(格陵兰大比目鱼)预计将失去约55%的高密度区域。另一种栖息地更深、温度更高的物种(北方对虾)仅因氧气耗尽就会失去约4%的高密度区域，但这些影响可能会通过变暖得到缓解，这可能会使低氧区域的密度增加8%，但在该地区最温暖的地区减少约20%的密度。由于当地气候多变性和极端事件，而且我们的模型不能预测物种对缺氧的敏感性随变暖而发生的变化，我们的结果应该被认为是保守的。我们提出了一种方法，在与管理者最相关的尺度上，在逐个物种的基础上，有效地评估多种环境应激源的个体和累积影响。我们的研究可能会为其他低氧地区的工作提供基础，并应有助于建立日益增长的气候科学文献基础，随着气候变化的加速，这将继续为资源管理者提供支持。
We have learned much about the impacts of warming on the productivity and distribution of marine organisms, but less about the impact of warming combined with other environmental stressors, including oxygen depletion. Also, the combined impact of multiple environmental stressors requires evaluation at the scales most relevant to resource managers. We use the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, characterized by a large permanently hypoxic zone, as a case study. Species distribution models were used to predict the impact of multiple scenarios of warming and oxygen depletion on the local density of three commercially and ecologically important species. Substantial changes are projected within 20–40 years. A eurythermal depleted species already limited to shallow, oxygen‐rich refuge habitat (Atlantic cod) may be relatively uninfluenced by oxygen depletion but increase in density within refuge areas with warming. A more stenothermal, deep‐dwelling species (Greenland halibut) is projected to lose ~55% of its high‐density areas under the combined impacts of warming and oxygen depletion. Another deep‐dwelling, more eurythermal species (Northern shrimp) would lose ~4% of its high‐density areas due to oxygen depletion alone, but these impacts may be buffered by warming, which may increase density by 8% in less hypoxic areas, but decrease density by ~20% in the warmest parts of the region. Due to local climate variability and extreme events, and that our models cannot project changes in species sensitivity to hypoxia with warming, our results should be considered conservative. We present an approach to effectively evaluate the individual and cumulative impacts of multiple environmental stressors on a species‐by‐species basis at the scales most relevant to managers. Our study may provide a basis for work in other low‐oxygen regions and should contribute to a growing literature base in climate science, which will continue to be of support for resource managers as climate change accelerates.