Bounded analysis of constrained dynamical systems: a case study in nuclear arms control
Bounded analysis of constrained dynamical systems: a case study in nuclear arms control
复制标题
约束动力系统的有界分析：核武器控制案例研究
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Plant
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Paul Beaumont;Neil Evans;M. Huth;T. Plant
我们介绍了一个简单的动力系统，描述了双边核军备控制制度的关键特征。每一方的信仰和声明的制度下的演变是代表，并捕获检查过程的影响。对这一模型的有界分析使我们能够在有限的范围内探索军备控制进程规则和各方战略变化的后果，感兴趣的变量的有界范围不变量，以及包含严格不确定性的初始状态的动态。所有这些都有可能使决策支持系统能够考虑感兴趣的案件，而不管未知数。我们通过构建一个Python包来实现这种能力，该包利用可满足性模理论（SMT）求解器的功能来探索特定场景并优化感兴趣的措施-例如一个国家对另一个国家所做声明的信念，或者计划外检查的时间，以便它具有最大价值。我们表明，这些能力可以在原则上支持未来的双边军备控制文书的设计或评估，将它们应用到一组具有代表性的和相关的测试场景与现实的有限的地平线。
We introduce a simple dynamical system that describes key features of a bilateral nuclear arms control regime. The evolution of each party’s beliefs and declarations under the regime are represented, and the effects of inspection processes are captured. Bounded analysis of this model allows us to explore – within a finite horizon – the consequences of changes to the rules of the arms control process and to the strategies of each party, bounded scope invariants for variables of interest, and dynamics for initial states containing strict uncertainty. Together these would potentially enable a decision support system to consider cases of interest irrespective of unknowns. We realize such abilities by building a Python package that draws on the capabilities of a Satisfiability Modulo Theory (SMT) solver to explore particular scenarios and to optimize measures of interest – such as the belief of one nation in the statements made by another, or the timing of an unscheduled inspection such that it has maximum value. We show that these capabilities can in principle support the design or assessment of future bilateral arms control instruments by applying them to a set of representative and relevant test scenarios with realistic finite horizons.
深入的案例研究：使用贝叶斯信念网络对信息障碍进行建模
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Beaumont P.
通讯作者：
Beaumont P.