UNDERSTANDING USER DECISION MAKING AND THE VALUE OF IMPROVED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS LESSONS FROM A CASE STUDY LESSONS FROM A CASE STUDY LESSONS FROM A CASE STUDY LESSONS FROM A CASE STUDY LESSONS FROM A CASE STUDY
UNDERSTANDING USER DECISION MAKING AND THE VALUE OF IMPROVED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS LESSONS FROM A CASE STUDY LESSONS FROM A CASE STUDY LESSONS FROM A CASE STUDY LESSONS FROM A CASE STUDY LESSONS FROM A CASE STUDY
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了解用户决策和改进降水预报的价值 案例研究的教训 案例研究的教训 案例研究的教训 案例研究的教训 案例研究的教训
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Radhika Nath
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. R. Stewart;R. Pielke;Radhika Nath
S对大气过程和天气预报的科学研究经常导致天气预报[如定量降水预报]的改进，这是以科学标准衡量的。此外，有效利用这种改进有可能避免受伤和死亡，避免财产和环境破坏，以及其他社会利益。尽管改进天气预报的潜在社会价值是巨大的，但这种潜力的实现并不是自动的(Pielke和Carbone 2002)。科学界有责任朝着这一认识努力。这项工作的成功取决于许多因素。要获得改进的预报技术的实际(不仅仅是潜在的或理论的)价值，需要(A)一个预报过程，该过程将改进的科学技术转化为针对用户需求的改进的预报产品，(B)及时有效地将预报信息传递给用户，并且以一种对天气信息敏感的决策有用的形式向用户传达预报信息，以及(C)用户将预报产品纳入他们的决策，以便作出更好的选择(关于预报、交流和使用的过程，参见Glantz和Tarleton 1991；Piekle和Carbone 2002；Sarewitz等人)。2002年)。满足这些要求始于对用户需求和决策过程的详细了解，这是系统研究的结果。这项研究也为研究当前预测的价值和预测改进提供了基础。有大量关于预报价值的文献(见，一项关于除雪决策的研究表明，需要改进的、持续的、系统的数据收集，以支持对预报的使用和价值的研究。
S cientific research on atmospheric processes and weather forecasting frequently leads to improvements in weather forecasts [such as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF)], as measured by scientific criteria. Furthermore, effective use of such improvements has the potential for avoiding injury and death, averting property and environmental damage, and other societal benefits. Although the potential societal value of improved weather forecasts is substantial , the realization of that potential is not automatic (Pielke and Carbone 2002). The scientific community has a responsibility to work toward that realization. The success of that work depends on a number of factors. Obtaining the actual (not just the potential or theoretical) value of improved forecast technology requires (a) a forecasting process that translates improved science and technology into improved forecast products that are targeted to user needs, (b) effective communication of forecast information to users in a timely fashion and in a form useful for making weather-information-sensitive decisions, and (c) users who incorporate the forecast product into their decisions in order to make better choices (on the processes of forecasts, communication, and use, see Glantz and Tarleton 1991; Piekle and Carbone 2002; Sarewitz et al. 2002). Meeting these requirements begins with the detailed understanding of user needs and decision processes that is the outcome of systematic study. Such study also provides a foundation for studies of the value of current forecasts and forecast improvement. There is a large literature on forecast value (see, A study of snow removal decision making shows that improved, ongoing, systematic data collection is needed to support studies of the use and value of forecasts.